489
FXUS63 KOAX 030441
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1141 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are expected Friday night. There is a marginal
  risk of severe storms (5 to 10 percent chance) south of a line
  from Albion, NE to Harlan, IA.

- There is another chance of severe thunderstorms (15 to 30
  percent chance) Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Clouds will continue to decrease this afternoon with winds
diminishing through the evening. Generally clear skies are
expected overnight with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Most of the day Friday should be pleasant with increasing clouds
and highs in the lower 70s with southerly winds 10 to 15 mph. This
will be head of the next round of storms that is expected to move
into the region Friday night and linger through early Saturday
morning. 12z CAMs were a little more aggressive with the storm
potential Friday night, thus coordinated with SPC to increase
the marginal severe risk a little more with the late morning day
2 update, to now include areas south of a line from Albion, NE
to Harlan, IA, where there appears to be a greater threat for
some of the stronger storms. Additional rainfall Friday night
looks to be in the one quarter to three quarters of an inch. Low
temperatures Friday night in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

There could be lingering showers Saturday morning along/east of
the Missouri river, but that should end and push east of the
area by 15z. The remainder of the day Saturday should be dry
with northwesterly flow, but with cooler temperatures in the mid
60s.

The blend does have some some small pops along the NE/KS border
late Sunday night into Sunday. This appears to far north based
on 12z operational models, so believe most of Sunday should be
dry with highs in the upper 60s to around 70.

Precip chances begin to increase Sunday night ahead of the next
upper trough, but really, the best chances for precip will come
Monday afternoon and night as the next strong front moves into
the region. Pops increase to 70% during this time, when SPC
indicates we`ll have the next best chance for severe storms.
Best forecast appears to be 4pm through midnight, with all modes
of severe weather again possible. Definitely another day that
the region will need to remain weather aware.

Tuesday and Wednesday looks mostly dry, although the blend has
some spotty precip chances Wednesday, and then we could see some
spotty showers on Thursday with a northwesterly surface flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Some fog formation appears likely overnight with KOMA being the
most probable terminal location to be affected. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail into Friday evening, prior to thunderstorms
moving into the area from the west. Light southeast winds are
forecast to increase to 12-14 kt by late morning or early
afternoon on Friday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Mead