Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 272258
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
558 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected through the week with warming into the
  70s by Friday.

- Chances (40-70%)for precipitation return to the region late
  this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Cool surface high pressure continues to slowly shift east of the
region this afternoon. A persistent stratus deck continues to
diminish leaving mostly sunny skies across the area this
afternoon. Mid-afternoon temperatures were mostly in the 30s
with a few mid to low 40s where southwesterly winds have
allowed temperatures to mix out a bit.

The cold airmass responsible for our recent below-
normal temperatures has finally moved northeast of the region
and will be replaced with an upper ridge building into the
central CONUS later this week. This will advect much warmer air
into the region with highs on Thursday topping out in the 60s
and possibly into the low 70s by Friday.

A weak shortwave and cold front will pass through the region Friday
bringing a slight chance (less than 20%)for a few showers Friday
night-Saturday.

Our next widespread chance for precipitation arrives late Sunday and
continues into early next week as an upper trough moves across
the central Plains. There remain some discrepancies with
deterministic models in regards to precipitation types and
timing. We maintained model blended PoPs and precipitation
types. Will continue to monitor trends over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Light winds at 5 to 10 miles per hour are expected to have a
predominant southerly component, though winds could oscillate
between southwesterly and southeasterly through the forecast
period. Across portions of northern Nebraska and southern South
Dakota, there is some signal for fog and/or low stratus to
develop over the existing snow pack. Most likely time for
impacts to aviation would be between 06Z and 17Z with
visibilities down to a mile and ceiling down to 500 feet.
Current guidance keeps the worse of these conditions northwest
of KOFK, but there is still some potential that broken low
stratus or patchy fog may build into the terminal area.
Confidence is low at this point, so have opted to exclude from
TAFs at this time. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the forecast period.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Darrah


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