Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 222126
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
426 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN WI WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS FOR THE FA OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE /CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/ SHIFTS EWD ON
THURSDAY WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN SEEN TODAY. THE BREAK FROM ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A MEAN WESTERN US TROUGH STARTS TO
DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY LEADING TO
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET BUT WILL LINGER SOME POPS INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS FOR LEFT OVER CONVECTION. SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN WITH MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS STARTING AS EARLY AS
SAT...BUT IT IS LATE MAY AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SO ISO SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO WARM BACK TO SEASONABLE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THE EXTENDED WITH THE
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH 06Z AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD THEN RETURN TO MVFR AFTER 02Z AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA AFTER 12Z AS
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

FOBERT

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$
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