Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KOAX 301141
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
641 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z.  SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KOFK BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z...AND KLNK
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT KOMA AFTER 18Z. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR VSBYS COMMON IN PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NO
PRECIP BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 00Z...BUT MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FIRE ALONG A FRONT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN KOFK NEAR 00Z...AND IN THE KLNK AND KOMA AREAS AFTER
04Z. ATTENDANT MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.