Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 130817
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
317 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

SLIGHTLY MILDER AIRMASS HAS ARRIVED...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN
IS STILL ON ITS WAY. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW DESCENDING FROM CANADA INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES...WITH 60M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB AT KINL...WHILE
588DM+ HEIGHTS DOMINATED FROM MT/WESTERN SD/NE/CENTRAL IA
SOUTHWARD. 850MB MOISTURE REMAINED POOLED FROM EASTERN NEB THROUGH
CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...WITH 16C+ DEWPOINTS IN THAT AREA...AS A
BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM LOW IN NORTHWESTERN ONT THROUGH MN/EASTERN
NEB-WESTERN IA/NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST KS. 850MB TEMPERATURES
REMAINED WARM ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE LOW AT 07Z
WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL KS...WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH KS/NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL AND WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
KS/OK-TX PANHANDLES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY WELL-ADVERTISED COOL-DOWN.  EXPECT A DRY MORNING IN WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT STORMS.  BY AFTERNOON...NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH THE AREA AS GREAT LAKES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS...WITH
MID-LEVEL WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH IA/NE.  INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK...BUT MAY SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHEAST NEB INTO WESTERN IA.  THINK
ANY SHOWERS WILL FADE BY EVENING.  LATER IN THE NIGHT...LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO DESCEND THROUGH THE MO VALLEY
REGION...AND MAY SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AIRMASS IS VERY DRY AND STABLE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND THINK ANY ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY
AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH DECREASING THUNDER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE MORNING ON MONDAY.

IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY AND COOL WEATHER SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH/MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE...WITH NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD
KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE RETURN IS
SHUNTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

WITH STRONG GREAT LAKES LOW...PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WHILE MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES...WELL SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CWA.  UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE WEEK...AND PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMMENCING ACROSS THE CWA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO
RECOVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.  MODELS CONSISTENTLY INDICATE
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER THIS
WEEKEND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA AROUND SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY.  FRONT WILL MOVE INTO IMPROVING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE KLNK TAF SITE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE AT ALL THREE LOCATIONS
OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME -SHRA COULD OCCUR
AT KOFK TOWARD MORNING. SHRA OR TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES
MAINLY BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...MILLER


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