Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 220405
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1105 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ALOFT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NRN TX INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE IS A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS CONTINUES TO EJECT LEAD SHORTWAVES OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FRIDAY MORNING BUT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
CLOUDS. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE
AREA WILL COME EARLY TOMORROW AND SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR WESTERN CWA
IN THE MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN MAY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE
MISSOURI RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT DRIZZLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
FARTHER EAST.

THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE THEN PASSES LATE ON FRIDAY WHILE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SATURATED
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SATURDAY
IS A COMPLICATED FORECAST BUT HAVE TRIED TO BACK OFF ON POPS JUST A
LITTLE BIT. THE 2ND IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION LATER ON SATURDAY BUT FEEL A MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON
MAY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF DRIZZLE BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THICK CLOUD COVER. INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY
WEAK SO WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL ROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LEE SIDE SFC LOW DRIFTS INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION OF COLORADO. STRONG/MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF PW`S TO MUCH OF OUR EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF OUR CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH COULD
LEAVE OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA DRY FOR SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BUT THAT IS QUITE A WAYS OFF FOR RIGHT
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. ON AND OFF PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE CONTINUOUS PCPN
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THIS
WILL SPREAD INITIALLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
ON FRI...BUT THESE WILL BE STEADILY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
MID CLOUDS BY AFTN AND THE CEILINGS COULD NEAR MVFR RANGE BY FRI
EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE TAFS DRY ATTM...THOUGH SOME
SCT -RA DOES BECOME POSSIBLE FRI EVNG. PRECIP SHOULD BE WEAKENING
AS IT NEARS THE TAF SITES THOUGH SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WINDS
WILL BE SE AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS DURING THE DAY ON FRI...BUT
GENERALLY BE AOB 12 KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD


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