Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 202319
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
519 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Main concerns in this period are precipitation chances from
Tonight into Saturday morning, then temperatures through the
period. Fog could become an issue, but will not go with an
advisory at this time.

Primary features of concern from the 12Z upper air charts included
the following. At 300 mb...strong winds were noted in the eastern
Pacific (up to 175 knots) which were punching toward northern Baja.
A secondary jet max of over 100 knots was lifting north/northeast
from western Montana. At 500 mb, one shortwave trough was lifting
northeast from the Dakotas and Minnesota, while another was over
Colorado. 12 hour height falls with the second shortwave were as
high as 120 meters.

That feature will be lifting northeast through the local area
tonight, with measurable precipitation, and also into Saturday
morning. Precipitation type tonight should be mainly rain, but
some snow could mix in. The mix would be mainly across northeast
Nebraska and at this time, no accumulation is expected. Looks for
lows tonight mainly in the 30s.

Clouds should decrease across the area Saturday, with highs
reaching into the mid 40s to lower 50s. If clouds are slower to
clear, it may end up being cooler. North or northwest winds
Saturday night into Sunday should bring some cooler air back into
the area which will last into Monday. At least for now, expect
any precipitation Saturday night would stay south of our area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

We will be watching this period closely. The longer range models
are in decent agreement with the large scale features, but details
vary. Low pressure should intensify over the high plains Monday
night, then track east or northeast through the region Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Warm advection/isentropic upglide, start Monday
night but any saturation appears to stay to our north in that
period.

Highest probabilities for accumulating snow from the 12Z GFS
model are over the northern half of the forecast area. The 12Z
ECMWF is similar, but has higher snow amounts that cover most of
the area. It is too early to get specific or to jump on one model
solution over another. Will bump pops upward slightly and will
have some likely wording for snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Widespread LIFR cigs/vsbys are forecast through Saturday mid
morning as low level moisture continues to feed north into eastern
Nebraska. Cigs below FL005 and vsbys near 1SM will be common.
Fluctuations in vsbys are likely as scattered showers and areas of
drizzle associated with a low pressure system move in and out of
TAF sites. After the low passes to the east around 12Z Saturday,
improving conditions are expected with mainly VFR forecast
shortly after 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Dergan


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