Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 170505
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1105 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

DOUBLE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE A NEW TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BE OUR
WEATHER MAKER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING DOWN THE MISSOURI VALLEY HAS
ALLOWED SOME CLEARING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY...BUT CLOUDS
TO THE WEST STILL HOLDING STRONG. STILL BELIEVE WE MAY SEE CONTINUED
THINNING OF THESE CLOUDS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A SCATTERED- BROKEN DECK OF MID
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE ADVANCING
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...CONTINUING THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE TAPERING TO FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN HOW FAR NORTH THE NORTHERN EDGE CAN DEVELOP GIVEN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR. ALSO SOME CONCERN THAT IT MAY TAKE LONGER TO
SATURATE IN WESTERN IOWA THUS CUTTING POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THERE.
LOOKING UP TO ONE HALF INCH ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES...AND
HALF INCH TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ELSEWHERE...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH SO NO MAJOR TRAVEL CONCERNS...OTHER THAN IT WILL
BE LIKELY BE SNOWING IN THE OMAHA/LINCOLN METRO AREAS FOR THE
THURSDAY MORNING RUSH.

DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW RETURNING TO THE
SOUTH...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER VERY WEAK TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY MEAGER...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHICH IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SOONER THAN THE GFS. GENERALLY
PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS HERE GIVEN NO STRONG UPSTREAM
KICKER...THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP MENTION UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MONDAY. BY THIS TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AT LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS UP WITH JUST A MENTION OF RAIN...WHICH
MAY END AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT KLNK AND KOFK. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER 08Z AT KOMA. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 15-16Z AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH


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