Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 230801
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
301 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SPOTTY SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SINCE
MIDNIGHT IN AREA OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEPICTED BY MODELS AND
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH. INSTABILITY RATHER LIMITED
THIS MORNING SO EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WORKING EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING.

MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. A PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE
FRONT. IN ADDITION...AN AXIS OF HIGH PW WILL BE IN PLACE FROM
TEXAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE
AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MID MORNING
TO MIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR
THURSDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT.

WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH REGION BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER THE EAST COAST AND WEST
COAST. WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE WEST COAST TROUGH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REGION FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO 00Z RUNS SHOW SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS IN LINGERING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
NATION DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SFC PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ACROSS ERN NEB...BUT LLWS WILL
REMAIN AN ISSUE THRU ABOUT 12Z WED MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING AREA OF -TSRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AREA WILL
MOVE THRU ERN NEB LATER THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR OCCASIONAL -TSRA/MVFR COND.

SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS ERN NEB TODAY WITH SLY WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 30KT.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WED EVENING THEN WHEN NEXT ROUND OF TSRA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH TEMPO GROUPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN MODELS HAVE BEEN
QUITE CONSISTENT ADVERTISING THIS STORM SYSTEM.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-
     088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE



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