Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 230825
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
325 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Looks to be a rather active weather pattern through both the short
and long term parts of the forecast despite generally dry
conditions. Winds and temperatures will be the primary concern as
a series of strong upper troughs move across the region during the
period.

The first trough was over the northern plains at 07Z with a cold
front stretching from the eastern Dakotas across northern Nebraska.
Strong northwest winds will spread across the area today behind
the front with gusts between 40 and 50 mph by this afternoon in
some spots. GFS forecast soundings show a deep adiabatic layer to
700mb allowing good momentum transfer to the surface along with
upper level winds directionaly oriented through much of the
profile. A wind advisory will be in effect for all of the forecast
area today.

The upper trough will deepen and intensify this afternoon and
tonight over the Great Lakes, then come together with the earlier
system that moved through our region this past weekend on Tuesday
over the northern Great Lakes. This will usher in a surge of
colder air with more strong winds expected on Tuesday. Wind
advisory headlines will likely be needed again across the area on
Tuesday but prefer to wait until current headlines expire before
issuing the next one. Winds will diminish tonight but still
remain rather brisk before picking up again around 12Z Tuesday as
the cold advection arrives.

Winds then diminish significantly Tuesday night with a westerly
flow bringing back some warmer temperatures for Wednesday as the
next system approaches from the northern Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Our next system arrives late Wednesday night and moves across the
region on Thursday. Very similar conditions to today will
accompany this system, with even colder air being pulled down
behind the front. Additional wind headlines are again likely on
Thursday before winds diminish Thursday night with breezy
conditions Thursday night through Friday. Temperatures Thursday
night will be near or below freezing across most of the area but
the wind is expected to be sufficient to limit frost development.
Lighter winds on Friday night will allow temperatures to fall
into the 20s resulting in a hard freeze across all of the area by
Saturday morning. The colder temperatures continue into Sunday
morning before warming to seasonal levels during the day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

A surface cold front currently surging through the northern High
Plains will continue southeast, eventually moving through the
eastern NE TAF sites between 09z and 12z Monday. Light south
surface winds will abruptly switch to northwest with the passage
of the front. LLWS criteria will be exceeded early Monday at all
locations owing to strong winds just above the ground. By mid to
late morning on Monday, expect a rapid increase in northwest
surface winds with gusts of 40+kt possible. Latest model guidance
suggests that isolated showers may materialize along the MO River
late Monday afternoon into evening. As such, we have included a
mention of VCSH at KOMA during that time frame. Winds diminish
some by Monday evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

The strong winds and dry conditions will place eastern Nebraska
and southwest Iowa in very high fire danger today and again on
Tuesday. The potential for extreme fire danger however, will
exist in some areas during the next couple of days depending on
development of drier surface conditions than expected.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Mead
FIRE WEATHER...Fobert



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