Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 230822
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PROGRESSION AND OVERALL TIMING OF ONGOING
PRECIPITATION.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW RAIN IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUS FAR RAIN IS HAVING A
TOUGH TIME MAKING IT TO THE GROUND GIVEN AMPLE DRY AIR IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LATEST METARS SHOW
CEILINGS AROUND 10-12 KFT AHEAD OF THE RAIN. AT THIS POINT ANY
LIGHTNING...AND STRONGER RADAR RETURNS...ARE FOCUSED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LOW LEVEL JET MAX
IS ENHANCING RAIN DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR VALUES AND DEEPER LAYER
FORCING IS OVERALL UNIMPRESSIVE THUS NOT EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO
GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING. EXPECT SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL
COVERAGE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN WYOMING. AS THIS
FEATURE LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE OUT. AS A RESULT
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY
EARLY EVENING ON WEDNESDAY WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS UNTIL THEN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE BEGIN TO
SEE A LARGE SCALE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO A BROAD
TROUGH. WHILE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS ROUGH ON THE DETAILS...THE
OVERALL PATTERN HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FOR A RETURN TO
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO BE THE
RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST. KOFK MAY GO DOWN TO
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD KLNK AND KOMA AROUND SUNRISE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ON AND OFF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PEARSON
AVIATION...KERN



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