Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 202323
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
623 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

Early afternoon water vapor imagery indicated seasonably deep
upper-level trough lifting into the Great Lakes. The associated
surface cold front extended down into the southern Plains with the
surface ridge axis over the high Plains. Steep low-level lapse
rates and cold temperatures aloft were leading to fairly
widespread CU this afternoon, but these should quickly dissipate
this evening with generally clear skies overnight. Surface ridge
axis does develop east overnight, but should remain just west of
the area through 12Z resulting in some mixing through the night.
Nevertheless, with dry boundary layer air and clear skies, a cool
night is in store, especially in the typical drainage areas that
will likely go calm on the winds.

The surface ridge axis will develop across the area on Sunday with
mostly clear skies and relatively light winds. Good mixing with
the dry air though should allow for a bit warmer day with highs
climbing back near or just above 80 most areas. Low-level WAA will
increase Sunday night into Monday as a lee trough develops and a
30-40 kt low-level jet becomes established over the Plains. Highs
on Monday will continue to warm back toward normal. The upper
level flow turns more southwest on Monday night and should allow
for some moisture return into the Plains. Models have been
consistent in indicating a low-amplitude shortwave trough to
emerge onto the Plains on Tuesday while a stronger trough and
associated height falls move into the northern Rockies. Little in
the way of frontal forcing is expected on Tuesday with the cold
front well to our west, but persistent broad warm/moist advection
into the area on the dynamically induced low-level jet coupled
with decreasing static stability will likely lead to a chance of
showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon, mainly over the
southern/western CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

The chances for showers and thunderstorms significantly increases
on Tuesday night as the previously mentioned front sweeps into the
area as the northern Rockies trough moves into the northern
Plains. We will continue likely pops on Tuesday night into the
first half of Wednesday associated with the front. Quiet weather
then appears likely for Thursday and Friday before models
generally agree the next weather system will start to impact the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 622 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. Scattered
6-8kft ceilings will dissipate around or shortly after sunset, and
north to northwest winds around 8-12kt will diminish to light and
variable.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boustead
LONG TERM...Boustead
AVIATION...Mayes



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