Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 131721
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1121 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

A potent short-wave trough over the northern High Plains early
this morning will track southeast through the mid-MO Valley today
in tandem with a surface cold front. Similar to past systems, this
disturbance will be interacting with a relatively dry air mass
with measurable precipitation chances seemingly quite low. A few
sprinkles will be possible this morning into early afternoon,
namely over portions of northeast NE into southwest IA.

Winds will become quite strong from the northwest by mid morning
with the gradient slowly relaxing by late afternoon into this
evening. Sustained winds of 30-35 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph
appear likely and we have extended the wind advisory to include
the Omaha metro area as well as all of our southwest IA counties.
High temperatures should top out in mid 40s north to mid 50s south
by early afternoon with readings slowly falling thereafter. It
appears that we will see a few-hour window of high to very high
fire danger develop early this afternoon from the Columbus area
south through Lincoln and Beatrice and points west.

Tonight into Thursday, yet another short-wave trough will
translate from the northern High Plains into the region. Clouds
should thin some tonight before thickening again on Thursday in
response to strengthening forcing for ascent. The extent of
cooling overnight will have implications on high temperatures on
Thursday, which in turn, will dictate snowfall accumulation
potential. Highest precipitation chances will be over the western
half of the forecast area, in closer proximity to the approaching
mid-level wave. We will continue to indicate snowfall amounts of
generally less than a half inch from the Platte River into
northeast NE. However, should temperatures on Thursday end up
colder than the mid to upper 30s we are currently forecasting, the
potential will exist for some local accumulations of an inch or
so.

Thursday night into Friday, any light precipitation will shift to
the southeast of the area Thursday evening with strengthening
westerly low-level winds allowing temperatures to rebound back
into the 40s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Latest medium-range guidance remains relatively consistent in
depicting a short-wave trough tracking through the northern
Intermountain Region Saturday with one piece of the system
shearing east across the northern Plains on Sunday, while the
other part develops south into the Four Corners. An associated
cold front will advance through the area on Saturday with some
potential for light precipitation later Saturday into early
Sunday. By the early to middle part of next week, it appears that
we will at least temporarily transition back to a trough in the
east and ridging in the west. Resultant northwest deep-layer flow
across the Plains translates to continued above-normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Continued VFR and windy conditions expected throughout the
afternoon with a large area of clouds advecting in from the
north. A few MVFR cigs are possible at KOFK and KOMA through the
overnight with decreasing winds at all sites. Lower ceilings are
expected to spread southeast late in the TAF period ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-051>053-067-068-090>093.

IA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Kern



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