Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 300423
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING WEST TOWARD MISSOURI RIVER
SHOULD WASH OUT TONIGHT AS SRLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS BELOW
FL010 WERE WORKING SW WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THESE LOW
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KOMA AND KOFK. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY TO ROLL INTO ERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID TUESDAY MORNING AS TROUGH CONTINUES LIFTING NE. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THESE STORMS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...IT
APPEARED THERE WILL BE ONE WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE MO RIVER
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT THEN LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS TWO
AREAS. ONE AREA POSSIBLY NEAR KOFK BY LATE AFTN WITH THE OTHER
NEAR OR SW OF KLNK A LITTLE LATER WITH THAT SECOND AREA POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KLNK AND KOMA LONGER THAN THE FIRST AREA WOULD AT KOFK.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN MORNING
CONVECTION ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE 70S. FOR NOW
JUST CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PROB30 WITH GUSTS TO 35 WITH LATTER
DAY CONVECTION CHANCES AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK


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