Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 052057
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
357 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
CAN FORM EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WITH THE COLD FRONT/SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY.

AT 12Z...H5 LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
CANADA WITH A BROAD TROF TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN U.S.
H7 MOISTURE WAS POOLED AHEAD OF THE H7 TROF WITH 2 TO 4 DEG H7
DEWPOINTS. 12Z H85 DEWPOINTS HAD RISEN TO 12 TO 14 DEG C ACROSS
THE STATE. MORNING CONVECTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF DISSIPATED
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE LINGERING CLOUDS IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. THERE WERE A FEW SPOTS THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN.  TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE ROCKIES.

SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOW HIGHEST MLCAPE TORWARD FAIRBURY AND
LINCOLN AND THE WEAKEST CAP IS IN THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...THE
WARMEST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE BUILDING IN TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE SHORT-TERM HIRES MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY THIS
EVENING. THE RAP AND SPC HRRR DO SHOW SOME ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THIS HIGH CAPE/WEAK CAP AREA. WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IF STORMS BREAK
THE CAP...THE COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THERE IS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET AND OMEGA WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROF. WARM ADVECTION/THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES WITH
THESE FEATURES...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA REMAINING WEST OF NORFOLK THROUGH 03Z...THEN SPREAD INTO
THE REST OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THE COLD FRONT. THROUGH
12Z...A PRE- FRONTAL TROF AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST...MEANWHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. CAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG IS FORECAST. DO MENTION SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN THE ZONE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. DURING THE
MORNING...ANOTHER PUSH WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THE STORMS MAY WEAKEN THOUGH BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT TO
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND RE-GENERATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ENDING MONDAY EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN WITH THE HIGH PWATS. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.8
TO 2.2 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE NAM20 EVEN HAS A RARE 3
INCH BULLSEYE FOR PWAT NEAR FNB AT 00Z MONDAY EVENING. TRAINING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AREA POSSIBLE. THE STORMS ARE PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH TONIGHT. MONDAY AFTERNOON THE STORM MOTIONS DO DROP DOWN
TO AROUND 15KTS...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED WITH A
RIDGE AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLD TSRA CONTINUED TO DECREASE BY AROUND MID DAY. CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL TSRA MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. CHANCES AT KLNK AND
KOMA ARE BEST AFTER ABOUT 10Z TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS SEEM POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY AT KOFK AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT KOFK BEFORE 12Z. WIND SHIFT AT KOMA AND KLNK WILL
LIKELY BE AFTER 14Z AND DID NOT INCLUDE THAT FOR NOW SINCE TAFS
WERE ALREADY FAIRLY LONG.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER


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