Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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008
FXUS63 KOAX 172301
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
601 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I80 THIS
EVENING SEEMS TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER...AND IS JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF CURRENT GRIDS. ADJUSTING POPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND REMOVING FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE LINGERING SPRINKLES HAVE ENDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE
QUICK ON ITS HEALS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SFC LOW OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
NEAR-TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT CHANCES
OF PCPN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AS COOLER AIR
RUSHES SOUTH.

A CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME DRYING FOR A FEW DAYS. SOME AREAS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE MID 30S SO DID ADD SOME PATCHY
FROST MENTION. THE 2-DAY DRY STRETCH WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER AS
THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. STRONG
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND THESE WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP LATE
FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
LOOKS TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE CNTRL PLAINS FOR THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KLNK IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. THE WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY NOT
DROP OFF AT KOFK...BUT PROBABLY WOULD AT KLNK/KOMA BY 01-02Z.
GUSTS INCREASE AGAIN AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS BY 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEWALD



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