Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 251116
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
516 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. IMPRESSIVE 220 METER HEIGHT FALLS WERE OBSERVED OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. LEE SIDE SFC REFLECTION ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WAS PROVIDING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH HAVE BEEN BLANKETING THE AREA
FOR OVER A WEEK HAVE FINALLY MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL STILL ALLOW SOME
SUNSHINE ALBEIT FILTERED. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN
OUR SOUTH.

SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00Z
TONIGHT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL EJECT TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. POST
FRONTAL PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SLOWLY SPREAD
INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVELS SATURATE
ACROSS OUR CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD CAUSE A BIT OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH BROAD AREA
OF WEAK VERTICAL MOTION. STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO NOSE OF 125KT 300MB JET STREAK. THIS
STRONG FORCING CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD SET UP A
BAND OF HEAVIER QPF FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT AS MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING. OVERALL THIS LOOKS
LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY SNOWFALL WITH ANYWHERE FROM 0.5" IN OUR SOUTH TO
NEAR 2" IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING WEAK RETURN FLOW INTO SUNDAY. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW TO
THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. FRIGID TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO MID NEXT
WEEK AS A 1045MB HIGH SETTLES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BROKEN DECK OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...WINDS BECOME NORTH. SHOULD ALSO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP AT KOFK BY 06Z...WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AT
THAT LOCATION BY 26/09-12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...KRINGLE



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