Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 162331
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONCERNS ARE RELATIVELY MINOR IN THE SHORT
TERM...THERE ARE SEVERAL MOVING PARTS THAT COULD CREATE A
CHANGEABLE FORECAST.

FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN NWRLY UPPER FLOW THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FLATTENS UPPER RIDGE EWD ACROSS
THE FA. ANY UPPER WAVES IMPACTING THE AREA ARE WEAK AND ILL-
DEFINED...WITH LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION PROBABLY PROVIDING MUCH
OF ANY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THIS WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES
ACROSS MOSTLY SERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND THUS A SMALL TSTM
CHANCE WAS MAINTAINED GENERALLY S THRU SE OF LINCOLN. ALSO AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS...ROUGHLY MARKING THE EDGE OF THE H85 MOISTURE
RETURN...WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE FA EARLY AND MAY LIMIT FOG
REDEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG MAINLY SRN AREAS
OUTSIDE OF WHERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CARRIED AS LOW/MID
50 DEWPTS SPREAD NE. CLOUDS SHOULD BRING MILDER LOWS TO THE FA
WITH LITTLE CHANGES. THE LOWER CLOUDS APPEAR TO MIX OUT ON
WEDNESDAY AND 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF POINT TO MAX TEMPS PERHAPS A
CATEGORY WARMER THAN EARLIER FORECAST AND THESE WERE RAISED TO
NEAR MET GUIDANCE. HEATING AND INCREASED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COULD ALLOW FOR LATE AFTN CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SWRN ZONES...WITH
SREF INCREASING RISK LAST FEW RUNS...AND A SMALL CHANCE WAS
INSERTED LATE WITH POPS CARRIED INTO WED NIGHT FAR S. WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT...A SMALL CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT DOES EXIST AS SHEAR IS A
LITTLE SUPPORTIVE.

AS H85/SFC DWPTS CONTINUING RISING INTO WED NIGHT LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN LOOK LIKELY BY THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH FOG AND DRIZZLE
ALSO POSSIBLE...WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO ASSESS
DEPTH AND OTHER FACTORS. WITH INCREASING SERLY WINDS THU AFTN SOME
BREAKS EXPECTED...BUT POSSIBLY NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO GET AS WARM AS THOSE FORECAST FOR WED.

AS UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE FA TOWARD FRIDAY...LEFT IN SMALL
POPS NERN ZONES THU NGT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THIS
ALLOWING MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO SPREAD NE AS WELL. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAY OF AT LEAST THE NEXT 7...WITH GOOD MIXING ON
MODERATELY STRONG SW WINDS. BOOSTED BOTH WINDS AND TEMPS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOOKS LIKE 12Z ECMWF TAKES REMNANTS OF TS ODILE THRU KS...
FOLLOWING LEAD OF FARTHER S GFS WHICH CONTINUED TO DO SO WITH 12Z
RUN. HOWEVER...SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ON ITS NORTH END COULD
STILL BE OVER THE FA AND WITH NRN STREAM WAVE DRIVING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS...HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED SERN ZONES
ON SATURDAY.  LINGERED SMALL POPS FAR SE SAT NIGHT...BUT COULD
VERY WELL SEE THE ACTIVITY SE OF THE FA BY THEN. REST OF THE
FORECAST WAS DRY.

WITH BULK OF MOISTURE FM ODILE POSSIBLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH...AMOUNT OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION AND/OR CLOUDS MAY BE
LACKING ENOUGH TO ALLOW MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY TO APPROACH THOSE
OF FRIDAY...SPECLY CNTRL/SRN ZONES. BUT FOR NOW LEFT MODEL BLEND
ALONE WITH MOSTLY 70S FOR HIGHS. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
PREVAIL SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH GFS/ECMWF BLEND SUGGESTING LOWER-MID
70S FOR MAX TEMPS. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE THE NEED TO LOWER MAX/MINS
SOME IF TROUGH DEEPENING TO OUR EAST DOES SO A BIT FARTHER SW.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AREA OF BKN-OVC VFR CIGS AROUND FL040 WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS CLOUD AREA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE SITES BY 06Z WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
VSBY AT KOMA 10Z-14Z AND MVFR VSBY AT KOFK AND KLNK AS SKIES CLEAR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT



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