Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 051130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WITHIN AN AREA OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
THE CELLS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT PULSY THIS MORNING LIKELY PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL HALF INCH TO NICKEL SIZE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND COULD LINGER
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO PAST 12Z THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 MPH...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. RAP/SREF/MODELS DO HINT AT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THERE 21-00Z.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE
DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP IN OUR AREA BY ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED TO DELAY BY ANOTHER 3 TO 6 HOURS
AS MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SLOW THINGS DOWN. STILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT. HAVE
DOUBTS IF PRECIP WILL MAKE IT TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH A STRONGER ENHANCED RISK ALONG THE NE/SD
BORDER AND POINTS NORTHWARD.

FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT MOSTLY CLEARING THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH JUST LINGERING THUNDERSHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE 03Z.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
SUBTLE WAVES MOVE BACK ONTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND
THEN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING ANY ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES AS
MODELS BECOME OUT OF SYNC WITH SYNOPTIC DETAILS...RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING LINE OF TSRA EXTENDING FROM SE SD INTO NE
NEB SLOWLY MIGRATING TO THE EAST. THE SVR THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. AT THIS POINT BELIEVE
ONLY KOFK IS AT RISK TO SEE ANY TSRA ACTIVITY WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP. ADDITIONAL TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SVR TSRA CHANCES THOUGH LOOK RATHER REMOTE WITH
+RA THE MAIN THREAT AT ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE



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