Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 302005
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE
FORECAST TREND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A
SURFACE TROUGH STALLS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE LESS WIND AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER BELOW THE EXTREME
CATEGORY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
RAPIDLY PULLING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY START OUT
ELEVATED WITH CAPPING INITIALLY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INDICATED DURING THE EVENING
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO FEED IT
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL FORCING. SYSTEM REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE REACHING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM INDICATED BY
MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF AROUND 15G25KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KOFK AND THIS EVENING AT
KOMA/KLNK...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES


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