Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 281738
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1238 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PCPN CHANCES TODAY AND THEN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH
RECENT 500 MB RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG
WAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE UP
TO ABOUT 50 METERS. ATMOSPHERE WAS ALSO QUITE MOIST. 700 MB
DEWPOINTS OF 4-8 DEGREES C WERE NOTED FROM THE DESERT SW UP INTO
WRN KS AND SWRN NE AT 00Z LAST EVENING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PW VALUES ARE AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE EARLY THIS MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST AREA OF LIFT AND HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...KEPT SOME POPS GOING MUCH OF THE
DAY. A WEAKER AREA OF LIFT SHOULD SPREAD SEWD OVER THE REGION AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY AT 20-30 PERCENT AFTER EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY ENDS.
RECENT HRRR RUNS AND EVEN THE 00Z NAM SUGGEST PREVIOUS SCENARIO...
WITH AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.

LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IN OUR FAR SERN ZONES EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. KEPT SOME
MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BOTH GFS MOS AND NAM
MOS SUGGESTING AT LEAST PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
DID NOT MENTION FOG SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR. RETURN FLOW WITH S/SE
SFC WINDS SHOULD THEN STRENGTHEN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NWRN MEXICO UP INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND A TROUGH FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NWRN UNITED STATES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. RIDGE WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY SEWD AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST DIGS. WEAK RIPPLES
MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE REGION COULD BRING SOME TSRA...WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA FOR MOST
OR ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CEILINGS HAD TRENDED TO MVFR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 17Z.
THOUGH SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS LINGER NORTH OF KOFK IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...LIFTING AND THINNING OF CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN AND
SURFACE MOISTURE EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS TO SET IN AFTER
10Z AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. AFTER 16Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR TO VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER



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