Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 262031
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
231 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
FLURRIES AT KOMA. THERE IS A PATCH OF VFR CONDITIONS MOVING
TOWARD KOFK.  DO INCLUDE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE FIRST...THEN
MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS BY
00Z AND UNDER 10KTS AFTER 00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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