Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 122253
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
553 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday into Thursday,
  with a 5-15% chance for severe storms Wednesday night

- Cooler, dry weather expected going through the weekend into
  early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

This Afternoon - Tonight:

A weak upper-level low is crossing just south of our area this
afternoon, with high clouds covering the southern two-thirds of
our area. These clouds are keeping us a bit cooler, with highs
across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa staying down in the
upper 60s to low 70s. We seem right on track with that as of 2
PM, with temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s. Winds will remain
light through the overnight hours with temperatures dropping
down into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Wednesday - Thursday:

A stronger low pressure system will be developing over the
Oklahoma Panhandle early Wednesday. Ahead of this, we`ll see the
warm front set up right along the KS-NE border by Wednesday
afternoon, with easterly winds setting up across our area.
We`ll see a surge of moisture stream up along the warm-conveyor
belt, bringing in clouds Wednesday afternoon. We get a good slug
of moisture that moves in right ahead of the arrival of the
surface low that coincides with our best chance for convective
initiation right around 6-8 PM Wednesday evening.

Hi-Res Models show storms will initially be isolated, with
indications of at least a couple supercellular storms. Being
north of the warm front, model soundings show enough of a low-
level inversion to keep tornadoes from developing, but there
will be a good chance for large hail and possibly some damaging
winds. Through the next couple ours after initiation, the low-
level jet kicking up will generate a line of storms north of the
warm front, with weaker showers and storms north of the
stronger convective activity over southeast Nebraska. The area
of greatest risk for large hail and damaging winds will be south
of Lincoln and Nebraska City.

The HREF shows MUCAPE decreasing after 10 PM which should lead
to a weakening trend in thunderstorms overnight. We`ll also see
a shift northward in the axis of shower and thunderstorm
activity as the surface low drifts slowly northeast into Iowa.

On Thursday, the Low will be slow to exit the area to the east,
which will lead to additional showers lingering through the day,
especially across northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. The
Storm Prediction Center clips our southwestern Iowa counties
with a marginal risk for severe storms Thursday afternoon. This
could possibly occur just as storms start to initialize, but
these storms would quickly exit to the east of our area. Primary
threat again would just be large hail as the storms will be
elevated in nature.

Rainfall Wednesday into Thursday should be widespread across our
area, with amounts of 0.25-1 inch likely. There will be a
corridor of 0.75-1 inch amounts across northeast Nebraska where
the rain sets up overnight and lingers into Thursday. There will
probably be locally higher amounts across southeast Nebraska as
well, associated with the strong thunderstorms.

Friday - Monday:

Rainfall should be out of our area by Friday morning, and drier,
cooler air will be advecting back into the region. Northerly
flow will help to keep temperatures closer to normal, with highs
on Friday topping out in the 50s. Saturday, the shortwave trough
moves off to the east and we get a push of southwesterly flow
which will help bring temperatures up a few degrees with highs
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on another,
deeper trough digging south out of Canada Sunday into Monday
which will bring another shot of cooler air. Dry air will keep
our weather quiet, but high temperatures will drop down into
the 40s for Sunday and Monday afternoons.

Something to watch will be the stronger northwesterly winds
Saturday and Sunday. With the dry air in place we could see some
very high to extreme fire conditions set up for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions through the period with winds less than 12 knots.
We will see a chance of showers at KOFK 13/21-24z. Chances are
only 20% at KLNK/KOMA, thus will leave out of this forecast
package.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...DeWald


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