Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 270825
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED THROUGH OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES...BUT ALSO
MOVING NORTH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO...BASED ON HRRR/RAP MODEL GUIDANCE. BELIEVE THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...ON THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME...AND TWEAKED FOR
TIME OF DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER DUE TO A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. MONDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE NEXT TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WEST COAST...MOVES
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY. THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT DOESN`T MOVE IN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL HAVE
POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...AND THEN
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE NOW FLIPPING
WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER MOVING THE PRECIP OUT...WITH THE GFS
HOLDING ONTO PRECIP WELL INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING PRECIP OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST.
COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY. WENT DRY ON FRIDAY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER WITH RADAR SHOWING SOME RETURNS SOUTH OF KOMA. MAIN ACTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA FEATURES SLOWLY SPREADING
NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL THREE SITES. MAY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON KOMA FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH 12Z BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...FOBERT


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