Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 101928
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
228 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Main forecast concerns centers around freeze/frost potential
overnight.

Potent closed mid-upper low continues to drift northeast across
northeast Kansas and southwest Iowa this afternoon while weak
shortwave ridging shifts east of the Rockies. At the surface, low
pressure continues to drift east across the Mississippi River Valley
while high pressure fills in behind. Strong subsidence behind the
departing low will continue to bring clearing from west to east
overnight. Some models are hanging on to clouds along the Missouri
River Valley and points east and so think temps should remain
above freezing along and east of the river. Areas to the west
however will be clear and under the high pressure ridge axis and
so think freezing temperatures are possible. Therefore, will be
issuing a freeze warning and adjacent frost advisories for these
areas.

After a cold start to Wednesday morning, a relatively nice day is
expected as surface high pressure slowly drifts east of the region
and weak southerly return flow sets up overhead. Thursday should be
another nice fall day before precipitation moves into the forecast
area on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

A strong/quick-moving shortwave is forecast to dig  through the
Central Plains over the weekend bringing increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Pops become more likely Saturday along a
frontal boundary extending northeast from central Kansas into
central Iowa. The boundary heads south as a cold front Sunday night
with strong CAA diving south behind it.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Deformation-band-related light precipitation is expected to
gradually diminish this afternoon as the associated mid-level
trough translates through the lower-MO Valley. Surface high
pressure will build into the area tonight with gusty north winds
diminishing. Clouds should generally decrease, except along and
east of the MO River where VFR ceiling could persist.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for
     NEZ045-052-053-067-068-090-092.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-
     089.

IA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for
     IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Mead



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