Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 270456
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1156 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CHANCE OF TSRA/COVERAGE/PCPN AMOUNTS MAINLY FROM LATE THURSDAY
AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.

HIGH BASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WERE ENOUGH TO GENERATE -SHRA/-TSRA
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THESE
SHOULD GENERALLY END BY EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURED WINDS FROM 40-80 KNOTS AT 300 MB
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS...THEN CURVING
DOWN TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 500 MB PATTERN WAS
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
BORDER OF CO/NM/TX/OK/KS. ENERGY WAS ROTATING UP AROUND THAT
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURGE IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW THAT
WE WERE WATCHING YESTERDAY WAS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THIS AFTN...AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN/THURSDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER SD WILL DROP SEWD INTO
THE AREA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND
315K AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BRING SOME ISOLD/SCT SHRA
AND TSRA FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT ZERO BUT IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE
SPECTRUM.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS NOT OVERLY HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTN EITHER...BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN OTHER
MODELS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD END UP BEING MORE OF AN ISSUE
THAN THE SEVERE THREAT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.50 TO
2.00 INCH RANGE WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM NERN NE
INTO WRN IA. PCPN MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH...BUT AMOUNTS WOULD GENERALLY
BE LIGHT.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HAVE SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. PATTERN AT 500 MB BY 00Z SUNDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION UP
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THAT RIDGE WILL PUSH SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. DID GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSRA FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

ACTIVE WX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO ERN NEB LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG A SLOW
MOVING COLD BY EARLY THIS AFTN OVER CNTRL NEB HEN PUSH INTO ERN
NEB TWD LATE AFTN THEN STALL OUT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF EVENTUAL AREAL COVERAGE AT THAT TIME...WILL RELY
ON PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS.



&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE


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