Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 261717
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1217 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WE EXPECT ONE MORE WARM/HOT DAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
DOMINATE THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES ARE STILL THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD.

PRIMARY FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...90 KNOT WINDS WERE NOTED FROM THE WY/MT
BORDER ACROSS NRN SD. AT 500 MB...A CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE A LOT LESS THAN WHAT
THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ONLY AROUND 40 METERS MAX JUST EAST OF THE
LOW. A BROAD RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE NM/TX
BORDER. VERY WARM AIR WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB WITH TEMPS OF
17 DEGREES C AT KLBF AND KOAX.

ISOLATED STORMS OCCURRED ABOVE THE CAP AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...
BUT COVERAGE WAS LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MEASURABLE PCPN DID
OCCUR AT KOFK. TWO TSTM COMPLEXES WERE NOTED AT 08Z...ONE OVER
CNTRL SD AND THE OTHER MOVING EWD ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER.

CONFIDENCE IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY...EVEN WITH MANY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
THE SD CONVECTION SHOULD TO DEVELOP SEWD TODAY AS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND HEIGHTS DECREASE. THE KS STORMS
MAY ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SOME SUPPORT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE SPC DAY 1 OTLK SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH A SLGT
RISK FOR PARTS OF SERN NE AND SWRN IA. THAT WOULD BE MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH.

SOME STORMS SHOULD END IN OUR SRN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS WELL...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

NO PCPN IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IN CONTROL AND LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR PCPN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
MONDAY JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HEATING....SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THAT. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 80 TO 85.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE 500 MB PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
STRONG TROUGH FROM QUEBEC DOWN INTO THE ERN UNITED STATES AND A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING DOWN
IN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY SGFNT
SHORTWAVES AND 850 MB MOISTURE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW. SO...KEPT
PCPN CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND MAINLY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THESE CHANCES ARE ALSO MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NERN NEBRASKA OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN AS IT TRACKS SE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE NORFOLK AREA...BUT WILL BE WORKING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SE OF THERE...AND COULD WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OMAHA. FOR NOW INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IT AT
OMAHA...AND OF COURSE ALSO OFK...BUT LEFT MENTION OUT OF LINCOLN
FOR THE TIME BEING AS IT COULD REFOCUS MORE ENE OF THAT SITE.
OTHERWISE PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS WILL PRECEDE CONVECTION AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NNW ON SUNDAY...BUT A SEPARATE
GROUP WAS NOT INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND DUE TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE SHORTER TERM.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK



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