Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 281938
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
238 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MORNING MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING EVOLUTION
OF GREAT BASIN LOW AND SFC REFLECTION LIFTING OUT OF HIGH PLAINS
INTO S-CNTRL CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEGINNING
MONDAY...VORT MAX AT BASE OF CLOSED CIRCULATION GETS EJECTED ON
MONDAY AND INTENSIFIES AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING. BY 12Z TUES...SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED
OVER WRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO IA/IL ALONG WITH A
STEADY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. INITIATION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OUT WEST WITHIN DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC
LIFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...VIA POTENT VORT MAX...WILL
ENHANCE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH ASCENT GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
THE CWA TUES/TUES NIGHT. WED/WED NIGHT...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT TO
HELP GRADUALLY PUSH CONCENTRATION OF MOIST/FORCING EAST OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY THEN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS MODELS DEVELOP A
DEEP/BROAD LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS IT
INTO THE ERN CONUS NEXT SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO SURGE SWD INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE CAA BEING REALIZED FRI OVER THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. A FEW MID
CLOUDS WILL BE DRIFTING AROUND THE REGION. SOME OF THESE MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER THEY SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE TAF SITES. KOFK COULD SEE ONE OF THESE BUT IT IS
AND ISOLATED CHANCE AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KERN



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