Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 170800
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
300 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Outside of one small cluster of weakening thunderstorms over
north central Nebraska, most of the convective activity early this
morning was located east of the area in association with a more
dominant mid level trough. Skies were otherwise mainly clear
outside of the areas of convection.

Surface features are forecast to remain rather weak through
Thursday and the upper flow transitions from northwest flow to more
zonal as a strong upper trough moves out of western and central
Canada towards the northern plains. This will allow generally dry
but very warm and humid conditions to prevail across the forecast
area during this time. More active weather comes into the picture
Thursday night and Friday as a strong cold front moves into the
region from the northern plains.

Initially the better forcing and higher POPs associated with the
front will be to the west and north of the area Thursday night and
early Friday. However, by Friday afternoon unstable conditions are
forecast to be in place across the area with an increasing chance
of strong to severe thunderstorms into Friday evening as the front
moves into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

The chance of thunderstorms will extend into Saturday as the front
and upper trough move through the region. A dry period then follows
into early next week along with cooler temperatures as high
pressure dominates the weather pattern over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2016

Mid and high clouds are expected to clear out overnight and with
light winds this could create some areas of fog. Will include
tempo groups for the morning hours but the remainder of the TAFs
should be quiet with VFR conditions expected.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Kern



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