Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 190508
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1108 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
WELL AS PRECIP CHANCE AND TYPE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

POOL OF WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS NEXT COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS POISED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS REMAINING AREAS REACHING THE
SOUTHERN BORDER BY MIDNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH THE COLDER AIR.

CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH LOCAL AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
AIR MASS. MODELS INDICATE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALREADY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. INCREASING LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME
AND ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP INDICATED SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. NO MENTION
AT THIS TIME IN THE FORECAST SINCE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND
LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL
MONITOR AND INCLUDE IF TREND CONTINUES IN LATER RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

PERIOD BEGINS WITH WARM AIR OVER THE AREA AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXTENDED MODELS KEEP AREA ON
WESTERN FRINGE OF PRECIP SHIELD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD
AND WINDY CONDITIONS MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A SECONDARY WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND EURO
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION AND TIMING SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
LATE PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

ALTHOUGH WINDS WERE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA
BY 05Z...A REINFORCING SURGE IN COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER
TONIGHT. EVEN GUSTIER NW WINDS WERE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES.
SINCE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF FLURRIES WAS UNCERTAIN...AND DURATION
PROBABLY BRIEF AT ANY ONE SITE...THEY WERE LEFT OUT OF 06Z TAFS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK


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