Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 242005
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

LOOKS TO BE THE START OF A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
INITIAL SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
TO THE AREA INTO THE EVENING.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AT MID
AFTERNOON. THIS BAND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO BETTER INSTABILITY
IN CLOUD FREE AREA OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA. MAIN AREA OF STORMS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA PRIOR TO
06Z BUT LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING AS SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PIVOTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

SAME ACTIVE TREND CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
ADDITIONAL SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THIS MAY BRING THE THREAT OF POTENTIAL FLOODING DUE TO PERSISTENT
RAIN EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AREA OF STORMS JUST SOUTHWEST OF KOFK AS OF NOON WILL
MOVE OVER THAT SITE...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY
20Z. LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FIRE EAST OF KOFK AND WEST OF
KLNK BY 21Z OR SO...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS KLNK AND KOMA TAF SITES
BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. ATTENDANT IFR VSBYS AND POTENTIAL CIGS WILL
ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY
STORMS BUT WAS NOT MENTIONED IN TAF AT THE MOMENT. STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES AFTER 03Z...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AND WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST OR WEST BY 12Z CAN BE EXPECTED.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



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