Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 130001
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
701 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

High pressure extends from the Great Lakes into central Kansas at
19Z with a weak surface trough across the northern plains.
Stronger near zonal upper flow remains across southern Canada
through Wednesday but pattern becomes more amplified Thursday and
Friday as strong short wave moves out of western Canada and
deepens over the western CONUS. Temperatures will remain well
above normal in advance of this western trough through Friday
with isolated thunderstorms possible both Wednesday night and
Thursday night as mid level warm advection moves across the
region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

The western trough begins to lift towards the northern plains
Friday night and Saturday driving a cold front into the area.
There will be a chance of thunderstorms in the vicinity of the
front with the best upper support coming across Saturday night.
High pressure follows behind the cold front on Sunday with models
still showing different placement of the cold front to the south
and its return north as a warm front for Sunday night and Monday.
Another deep upper trough comes into the west on Tuesday but
models differ with regard to strength of a southern stream wave
ahead of this system that tracks across the southern plains. GFS
is much stronger with this southern system compared to the EURO
and results in more extensive precip. Low PoPs will cover this
period for now with hope of better model agreement in later runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

VFR conditions will prevail thru the fcst pd.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...DEE



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