Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 181710
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK AND OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
MOVING IN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE THE MAIN POINTS OF THE
FORECAST. PATCHY FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
TONIGHT.

UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. BATCH
OF STRATO CU ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM WAS SPILLING
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH SYSTEM PULLING
AWAY...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH MODERATE COOL
ADVECTION KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S NORTH TO THE 60S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIME TO AT LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE
DRIEST AIR AND LIGHTEST WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S...LEADING TO AREAS OF FROST TOWARD DAWN. DO NOT THINK
THIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
AND THERE IS STILL A QUESTION WHETHER SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM SHOWS A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD SPREAD THROUGH THE
PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THOSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PROCEED ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO THE
PLAINS AT MID WEEK. TROUGH ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING IS
NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO...AND THUS ITS EJECTION
INTO THE PLAINS IS A TAD FASTER. WILL SEE THICKENING CLOUDS TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TO BRING RAIN CHANCES INTO OUR WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES
INCREASE MARKEDLY BY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. INSTABILITY IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT SO NOT EXPECTING
MORE THAN SHOWERS RIGHT ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN/CLOUDS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
COMBINED WITH COOL AIRMASS AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND
COMPONENT SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE MUCH. HIGHS IN
THE 50S ARE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKENDS...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THIS COMING
WEEKEND WILL BRING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SOME
BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY TROUGH/LOW...HELPING
TO WARM TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE WESTERN
TROUGH RELOADS...WITH MODEL FORECASTS PERSISTENT AND CONSISTENT IN
EJECTING WAVE/LOW INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. LOWERING SURFACE
PRESSURES IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...DRAWING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH POTENTIALLY 60S DEW
POINTS REACHING EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON
EXACT TRACK OF WAVE AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMA AND SURFACE
FEATURES...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR LIKELY FOR SEVERE
STORMS CLOSE TO OUR AREA. OF COURSE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED
OUT TO BETTER PIN DOWN AREAS AND TIMING...BUT BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COULD BE INTERESTING. OTHERWISE WILL INTRODUCE FIRST MENTION
OF RAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY AS LEAD SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED BY
GFS/ECMWF BEFORE BETTER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DEVELOPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. A SC DECK JUST
AROUND THE MVFR RANGE CONTIUES TO FLIRT WITH KOFK BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS
OVERHEAD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN



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