Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 161228
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
728 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SHORT TERM FOG THEN PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST IN
RESPONSE TO SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH.

TO START THE DAY EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG...MOST DENSE GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER. THOUGH AS OF 8Z METAR REPORTS
SHOW THE THICKEST FOG AT BVN/OLU/JYR/MYZ. AREAS FURTHER NORTH MAY
DROP IN VISIBILITY AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN WAS RECEIVED YESTERDAY. DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN
NEBRASKA TO COVER THIS.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PASSING GENERALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. NOT TOO
EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL AS THE MAIN FORCING IS SITUATED WELL
NORTH OF US. PROBABLY THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKS MORE OVER OUR
AREA. BEYOND THAT A SIMILAR TREND HOLDS WITH CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AT LEAST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER UNINTERESTING WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 60S.

AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 728 AM
CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

IFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK AND KLNK SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z WHEN
CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME MVFR WITH CEILINGS AT 015 OVC AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVE. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CREATE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AT KOFK...KLNK...AND
KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ030>032-
     042-043-050-051-065>068-078-088>090-092.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PEARSON
AVIATION...SMITH


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