Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 231717
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1217 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO BREAK UP AS OF LATE MORNING AND EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. STILL EXPECT THE
CHANCE FOR PCPN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

COLD FRONT PASSED WITH LITTLE FANFARE YESTERDAY EVENING WITH
MOSTLY TRACE AMOUNTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 08Z...BUT OTHERWISE PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. THE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING WEATHER WAS ENTERING THE WEST
COAST...AND WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE...WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
KANSAS AND MOVES EASTWARD INTO MISSOURI. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE
MEAGER INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FURTHER NORTH. BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS JUST SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS
WHERE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY BE STRONGER OVERNIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE TUESDAY...THE SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAINFALL WILL BE WELCOME SINCE WE HAVEN`T
HAD SUBSTANTIAL LIQUID MOISTURE YET THIS MONTH. STORM TOTAL FORECAST
AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 0.85 INCHES. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT AGAIN THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY IS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS DO HINT AT A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT PEAK HEATING...BUT AGAIN THE
REAL INSTABILITY SETS UP EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH COOL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH SETTLES THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS. MODEST WARMING DEVELOPS SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE
MODELS DO SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW...WILL OPT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

SINCE LOW CLOUDS ARE DECREASING THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PCPN
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT KLNK AND KOMA. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE DELAYED
AT KOFK UNTIL AFTER 12Z KOFK. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RH RETURNS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



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