Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 060407
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1107 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

OVERNIGHT MCS HAS DISSIPATED OVER NORTHERN MO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM THE SKIES HAVE STARTED TO
CLEAR AND A RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY OVER THE
FA WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING AROUND 2500-3500
J/KG OF MLCAPE PRESENT OVER A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THUS
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS THE FIRST CONCERN THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH SUBTLE...A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NE KS FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS WITH SOME
CONVERGENCE NOTED. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATED THAT A WEAK VORT LOBE LOCATED OVER SE NEB. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS COULD LEAD TO ISO TSRA DEVELOPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER CONTD INSULATION. THIS IS INDICATED IN
BOTH THE RAP/HRRR. ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE THE CHANCES
STILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING
OUT OF THE AREA AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION WITH CONTD HEATING THE LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONT TO WASH OUT LIMITING CONVERGENCE. WILL
HAVE SOME SCHC POPS IN SE NEB/SW IA IN CASE ANYTHING DOES DVLP.

OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH
IS CURRENTLY MOVG ACRS SRN ALBERTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUN AND ALLOW FOR A CDFNT TO SHIFT SEWD
INTO THE FA THRU THE DAY. IT STILL APPEARS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMBING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 100. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY STILL SEEM SLIM WITH THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
MISSING THE CWA TO THE NORTH...INCREASING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS WE STILL
MAY SEE AN ISO TSRA DVLP/MOV INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST DURING THE
EVENING IF SOMETHING CAN DEVELOP IN AREA AN AREA OF DEEP SFC
MIXING OVER CNTRL NEB.

THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL COME ON MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENING AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO SD/NEB
ASSOCIATED WITH A 80 KT H3 JET. THE SUN BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SETTLE
INTO NRN KS BEFORE RETURNING ON MON AS WAA INCREASES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AHEAD THE BOUNDARIES AS THE MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COOL AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES. GIVEN THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM EVENT STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY ISN`T PROGGED AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT EXITING BY TUE MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL THEN AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE CWA FOR
TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID MO RIVER
VALLEY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THAT
RETURN FLOW WILL GET STARTED ON WED NIGHT WITH THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN INCREASING IN THIS PATTERN TOWARD THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD BACK TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY WITH RECENT RAINS AND FORECASTED LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS/LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WIND. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THIS...BUT DID INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP MAINLY BETWEEN 09-13Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15-18Z AT
KOFK AND CLOSER TO 21Z AT KOMA AND KLNK. VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE...HOWEVER HEATING WELL INTO THE
90S...WEAK LIFT...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK
THE CAP AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. OR...THE CAP MAY HOLD.
THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO INCLUDE VCTS AT 21Z/22Z
AT KLNK WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH AT PEAK HEATING. MAY HAVE
TO INCLUDE AT OMAHA DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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