Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 020351
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1051 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH RECENT RUC
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED 500 MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AREA. SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED IN THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...OUR AREA WAS IN FAIRLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S. EXPECT MOST OF THE
NIGHT TO BE DRY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG OR WEST OF HIGHWAY 81. NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OR MORE AND
LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 DEGREES CELSIUS PER KILOMETER ABOVE 800 MB.
SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS COULD MAKE IT
THIS FAR EAST LATE...OR THERE MAY BE NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A 30-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG.
BUT...THE FOG POTENTIAL DID NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH OR VISIBILITIES LOW
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY...MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET/RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW IN NORTH DAKOTA. NOT SURE IF ANY OF
THESE WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION...BUT THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  HEATING
IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RE-FIRE THE CONVECTION. INSTABILITY MAY
APPROACH 2000-3000J/KG IF ENOUGH HEATING IS REALIZED.
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IF IT BECOMES THIS UNSTABLE. THE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT TEND TO FAVOR HEAVY RAIN AND THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE
FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. DURING THIS TIME PWAT VALUES
RANGE FROM 1.3 TO 1.75 INCHES...THUS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
AREA WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY/LLJ ACROSS
KANSAS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN. THERE
ARE SOME PERIODS WHERE CLIMATOLOGICAL PWAT ARE IN THE 90-99TH
PERCENTILE. COORDINATED WITH WPC AND PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
MAY BE INCLUDED IN THE DAY 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (WED-
THU).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHERE IN OR
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER WITH CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE TO THE
EAST OR SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROF TRACKING ACROSS CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRAG A FRONT INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CHANCES LINGER
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT LOOK TO CLEAR THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL AROUND 75 TO 80 EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF EASTERN
NEB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN BOTH OCCURRENCE AND PLACEMENT IF
THEY DO OCCUR...SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE DIURNALLY BY AROUND 15-16Z AND LOSE GUSTS AFTER 01Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MAYES



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