Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 011745
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MORNING UPDATE TO REFLECT THICKER MID CLOUDS AND STARTED TO TRIM
BACK HIGHS TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAY HAVE TO TRIM FURTHER.
MORNING HI-RES MODELS AND OPERATIONAL 12Z NAM STILL HAVE SOME
ISOLD/SCT PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...SO LEFT POPS IN WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROF/THETA-E ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS AREA BALANCES BETWEEN DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
IN THE WEST AND RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH A SMALL AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WASHES DURING THE DAY WITH LITTLE FORCING UNTIL AFTER 00Z
AS WEAK UPPER WAVE AND AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONTINUED TO LINGER SMALL
POPS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THEN DRY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL POPS REMAIN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL WEAK ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE AREA.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ON THURSDAY AS TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES WITH MOISTURE AND ENERGY SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST. EXPECT
BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF VERY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WITH
BETTER FEATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA IN THE
STRONGER FLOW. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS WESTERN TROUGH PUSHES EAST. MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO STAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IN THIS MODEL RUN...BUT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND EURO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
DEPENDING ON MODEL TIMING. FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME AS UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE SCT-BKN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE AT/VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES WITH THIS WAVE. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE DID NOT MENTION AT KOFK/KLNK PRIOR TO
00Z...HOWEVER DID MENTION VCSH LATER TONIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO
TREND BETTER WITH THE 00Z UPDATE. BRISK SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
10 TO 16KTS SUSTAINED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE TO
12KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT AND
MENTIONED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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