Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 271951
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
251 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Periods of showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast
through at least Saturday as upper level system works its way
across the region toward the upper midwest.

Area looks to be on the edge of better instability to the south
and east from Kansas into Missouri this afternoon with a weak
surface boundary from northeast Kansas into south central Iowa.
Some convection already showing up on radar in this area at 19Z with
an increase in coverage expected through late afternoon with
activity spreading northeast tonight as the upper trough begins to
lift toward eastern Nebraska. Not planning on any headline for flood
issues at this time with progressive northward movement expected
this afternoon and evening with storms and better moisture
transport indicated east of the area.

Should then see a break in the wet weather for a time Saturday
night into Sunday on the back side of the trough before the next
system approaches from the northern Rockies on Monday with the
potential for another round of storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Northern stream energy becomes the main feature in the extended
period with main uncertainty regarding southward extent of a cold
front that moves into the region wednesday night and thursday.
Models differ in handling this upper system with GFS closing off
an upper low over Kansas on Thursday while ECMWF continues with an
open and progressive trough that drives the surface front well
south and east of the area. Have kept small pops in through the
period for now but later adjustments possible depending on model
trends.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

variable vfr/mvfr cigs for this afternoon and tonight with some
spotty showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms should
increase in coverage late this afternoon and this evening with
increasing lift and heating. Did include a tempo mention in the
forecast at koma and klnk as a first guess and a prob30 at kofk.
As the h5 low migrates eastward. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will continue into Saturday.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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