Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 251140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
640 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

Forecast challenges in the short term will be how far north of the
surface front will the precipitation spread into the forecast
area each period...then precipitation becoming more widespread
Friday and Friday night...along with cloud cover and temperatures.

Surface high pressure was over the Western High Plains with the
surface front near Wichita and Kansas City. We are on the cool
side of the front with temperatures in the 50s and 60s with
similar dewpoints. The h5 trough extended from the lowest
pressures over Manitoba southward toward Colorado and back toward
Idaho. Shortwave trough energy tracks across Kansas through

Through tonight...the PWAT values around 1.5 inches are generally
over the southeast parts of the state and begin moving northward
Friday. h85 dewpoints reflect this with moist 12 to 16 degree C
values across parts of Kansas and Missouri with 8 to 12 degree
dewpoints in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with drier
conditions farther north. Southwest flow aloft will transport the
moisture north of the front into our county warning area.

The latest runs on the hires models continue to support the
highest pops through tonight near the Kansas border and more
isolated showers toward I80.

As the trailing trough deepens Friday, south flow increases and
the h85 front lifts northward. The theta-e axis over Kansas lifts
northward into South Dakota and Minnesota through Friday night. As
this shortwave pushes through Friday and Friday night...have high
pops across the area.

With a more zonal flow for the weekend...still some chance for
isolated precip.

Cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s...then some warmer 80s
for parts of the area Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

Warmer highs in the 80s are forecast for the extended with
periodic chances for thunderstorms. The pattern does not have any
strong fronts push through. Did mention some patchy fog Saturday
night and Sunday morning.

Much of the weather attention will probably center on the track
of tropical activity heading toward Florida Sun-Wed.


Issued at 640 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

Generally expect VFR conditions...especially for KOFK and KOMA
through the period. Some MVFR visibilities are likely and MVFR
ceilings possible in the precipitation. Radar loop early this
morning showed an area of SHRA and TSRA moving northeast into far
southeast Nebraska. The chances for rain today are the highest at
KLNK and will include a TEMPO group for SHRA there. Main area of
thunder could stay just to the south...but will amend if needed.
Rain chances farther north seemed too low to include in the TAFs
at this time.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
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