Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
000
FXUS63 KOAX 100456
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1156 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Extreme fire danger potential on Thursday. Very high fire
danger again on Saturday.
- High temperatures in the 80s Saturday, Sunday and Monday
- Thunderstorms possible Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
.Tonight and Wednesday...
Near normal low temperatures are expected for tonight. A weak
trough will move through the area in response to a disturbance
moving across the northern plains. No precipitation is expected.
Though winds will have more of a northerly component on
Wednesday, believe surface cold air advection will be mitigated
by increasing H8 temperatures and a downslope effect. Trended
toward the 25 percentile of NBM. Deterministic models showing
some signals of isolated showers Wednesday evening as a series
of upper disturbances traverse the northern plains, but low
level moisture appears limited.
.Thursday...
A Fire Weather Watch has been posted for southeast Nebraska.
Northwest winds 20-35 mph with gusts 40-45 are expected,
combined with low level dry air advection.Soundings showing
sufficient mixing that have moderate confidence (40-60%) that
dewpoints will be lower than NBM, thus lowered a few degrees. As
such relative humidities during the afternoon expected to fall
into the 15 to 25 percent range. Fire weather partners reported
live and dead fine fuel moisture content only in the 15 to 20
percent range, thus feel conditions are sufficient for extreme
fire weather conditions.
.Friday and Sunday...
Friday is a transition day with slightly warmer conditions
expected and dry weather to continue. H5 ridging builds into the
area Saturday, along with strong low level warm air advection
and increased low level moisture. With temperatures in the 80s,
and again winds in the 15-20 mph range, there is some risk for
fire weather concerns, with relative humidities only dipping
into the 25-30 percent range for a few hours based on current
information. Will message for fire weather concerns, with
headlines possible as time gets nearer. Another warm day is
expected on Sunday with the passage of yet another dry surface
trough having little effect.
.Monday and Tuesday...
A substantial trough of low pressure develops across the western
U.S. Ensembles showing timing differences in the movement of the
system into the central plains. Large scale ascent ahead of the
system will bring increasing precipitation chances Monday
afternoon into Tuesday. Deterministic models showing decent
moisture return, with possibility of 60 dewpoints advecting into
southern portions of the CWA, along with decent volumetric shear,
will have to monitor evolution of system for possible severe
weather development. Still to early to determine the timing and
location until better agreement in the forecast models occur.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
VFR conditions continue to be expected through the period, with
winds calming considerably. Directions will turn southeasterly
and will slowly increase in speed before turning northwesterly
and increasing in speed with gusts arriving from west to east at
20 to 25 kts tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Another
scattered deck of cumulus should develop during the afternoon
hours as well, generally from FL070 to FL080.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for NEZ030-042-043-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fortin
AVIATION...Petersen