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000
FXUS63 KOAX 221137
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
637 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southwesterly winds gusting 35 to 45 mph today could
  bring fire weather concerns for areas where fuels remain dry.

- Showers and storms are expected (40-75% chance) late this
  afternoon into the evening, primarily near and south of
  Interstate 80. A few could be strong and produce gusty winds.

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Thursday through the weekend, though confidence is somewhat
  low on exact timing of any given round. Severe weather will be
  possible at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Short Range (Today through Wednesday)

While we will see high temperatures rise into the mid to upper 70s
today, we will start off with breezy conditions across the area.
Southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will begin
late this morning and continue into the afternoon. A Wind Advisory
will go into effect from 9 AM to 4 PM for the eastern majority of
the CWA. Fire weather concerns are present this afternoon as minimum
RH values dip into the 25-30% percent range with breezy conditions
continuing through the afternoon. Fire weather concerns are mostly
confined to portions of west-central Iowa and east-central Nebraska
where fuels remain dry. Conditions currently appear to remain under
Red Flag Warning criteria in this area, however fire weather
concerns will remain high as gusts of 40-45 mph are possible in this
area.

A cold front will sweep through the area from the northwest to the
southeast late this afternoon into the evening, calmer northwesterly
winds are expected behind the front. A few sprinkles are possible
along the front, primarily in northeast Nebraska. More promising
rain chances are present later this evening as a shortwave trough
pushes in from the Northern Plains. Meager instability (MUCAPE < 500
J/kg) and moderate 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-7.5 deg/km) could lead
to a few weak organized thunderstorm in southeast Nebraska. Small
hail and a couple strong wind gusts will be the primary hazard in
this area. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread later
this evening, mainly near and south of Interstate-80 (PoPs 40-75%).

Showers are expected to wrap up by early Tuesday morning before high
temperatures peak in the 60s. Breezy conditions will return Tuesday
afternoon. Highs will continue in the 60s on Wednesday as upper
level ridging builds into the Central Plains. Sprinkles to a few
light showers are possible Wednesday afternoon into the evening
(PoPs 20%) as a weak shortwave trough slides across Nebraska.

Long Range (Thursday through Sunday)

An upper level trough is expected to build into the western CONUS in
the latter half of the work week. Several impactful shortwave
disturbances will eject into the area, bringing several storm and
rain shower chances through the weekend. Confidence in the exact
timing and details of these events remains low in this extended time
frame. Long range guidance displays a strong negatively tilted
shortwave trough traversing the Central Plains Thursday into Friday.
A round of elevated thunderstorms and widespread rain showers is
likely Thursday night into Friday. Friday afternoon/evening appears
to be the best chance of severe weather for eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa. A brief break in precipitation is expected Saturday
morning/afternoon before the aforementioned upper level trough
slides into the Central Plains, bringing yet another chance of rain
Saturday night and the potential for severe weather Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
SCT-BKN clouds mainly above FL150. The exception is potentially
this evening at KOMA and KLNK when widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms could result in brief visibility reductions.
However, there is still considerable variability in the short-
term models with respect to when and where that precipitation
will develop. As such, this forecast will not include any
SHRA/TSRA mention. Otherwise, winds will strengthen considerably
this morning, initially from the south with the winds gradually
veering to southwest and then northwest as a front moves through
the area. The winds are expected to diminish by this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for NEZ012-015-018-
     032>034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Mead