Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 271952
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
252 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MODELS PRETTY MUCH SHOWING NIL ACTIVE WX TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BE
REPLACED BY AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...THUS
ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARM UP HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. MET AND
MAV MAX/MIN TEMPS ARE QUITE SIMILAR AS WELL AS REASONABLE TONIGHT
THRU WED.

ON THURS...HAVE CHOSEN TO SIDE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MAX TEMPS AS
OPPOSED TO THE MAV CONSIDERING BOTH NAM/GFS PUSH THE BNDRY INTO THE
CWA BY 12Z. IN ADDITION...ECM SOLUTION ALSO FAVORS COOLER HIGH
TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE MET.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MODELS IN AGREEMENT PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THIS WEEKEND ALL IN PART TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THE DOMINATE
FEATURE OVER THE PLAINS. PCPN CHANCES RETURN THEN SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
IN RESPONSE TO FORMATION OF INTENSE CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND DRAGGING ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. SOME HINT THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE...BUT WILL STICK
WITH JUST SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS...AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER AWAY THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDER...HAVE BEEN NOTED
IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS OVER WESTERN IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE CANNOT
TOTALLY BE RULED OUT AT KOMA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...PEARSON



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