Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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128
FXUS63 KOAX 300449
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

A RAINY AND COOL WEEKEND IS IN STORE. KEEP THOSE UMBRELLAS AND
RAIN JACKETS HANDY.

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAD 50 TO 70 METER
HEIGHT FALLS AND A 110 KNOT JET ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO NORTHEAST KANSAS. INSTABILITY REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF VERY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF I80
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOMEWHAT DRY NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY
INHIBIT THE RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...BUT WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
SATURATE QUICKLY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ALL AREAS TONIGHT AS STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS...COMBINED WITH EXIT REGION OF AN THE
UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVERHEAD.

THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A DRY SLOT MAY HELP TO MAKE THE STEADIER
RAIN BECOME MORE SHOWERY SOUTH OF OF I80 DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CONTINUES PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THERE ALSO
REMAINS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY SOUTH OF I80 DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING SLOWLY MIGRATES
EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE A DEFORMATION BAND AREA
OF SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BEGINS TO WANE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE OPENS AND RAPIDLY MOVES EAST.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COMING IN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY COULD RANGE
FROM 0.75 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SW IA...TO 2.5" IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. SINCE THIS IS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT IS SPREAD OUT
OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS...FEEL THAT WE CAN HANDLE IT OK DESPITE
SOAKING RAINS LAST FEW DAYS. ALSO...IT SHOULD BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT
FOR OUR AREA...WITH SNOW JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES...BUT OPENING AND
WEAKENING AS IT DOES ON MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS
TO THE NE/KS BORDER REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS ALSO BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NOT GREAT OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. ECMWF TAKES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND MOVES IT SOUTHWEST OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
GFS MEANWHILE MOVES IT INTO OUR AREA THEN QUICKLY EAST OF THE
REGION. BOTH MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WE FINALLY DRY OUT DURING
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS. THUS...NO REAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE DAYS 4-7 PERIOD RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP MODEL
BLENDS GOING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

-RA CONTS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL SOON INCLUDE ALL TAF
SITES. CIGS REMAIN MVFR THOUGH...BUT UPSTREAM IFR/LIFR CONDS
SHOULD START TO DVLP NEWD TOWARD KOFK/KLNK AFTER 06Z AND LASTLY
INTO KOMA TOWARD MRNG. MODELS INDC MAX LIFT TO MOV THROUGH THE TAF
SITES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT MRNG AND WILL INCLUDE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN AND LOWEST CIGS/VISBY DURING THIS TIME. RAIN MAY SHUT OFF FOR
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN AT KOMA/KLNK...BUT WILL LIKELY CONT AT KOFK
THRU THE DAY. RAIN MAY MOVE BACK INTO KOMA/KLNK ON SAT ENVG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



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