Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 162046
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
246 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Surface gradient over the central plains region will continue to
tighten into tonight as high pressure moves off toward the
Ohio Valley and a cold front approaches from the northern plains.
Southerly winds will bring increasing moisture and warmer
temperatures into the area tonight into Friday in advance of the
cold front. Some light rain or drizzle may reach parts of
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by daybreak on Friday then
shift east of the area by early afternoon as the cold front moves
into the southeast portion of the forecast area. A better chance
of rain or a rain snow mix is expected Friday night as the area
comes under stronger forcing aloft associated with a jet max
moving across Kansas and ahead of an upper trough over the
northern plains. Temperatures are expected to fall into the lower
30s over northern parts of the area late Friday night bringing
some chance of light snow or a rain snow mix to parts of northeast
Nebraska into early Saturday morning before ending. Any snow that
does fall is expected to result in only minor accumulations,
generally less than an inch, and melt quickly during the day as
temperatures climb into the lower 40s with skies clearing by
afternoon.

Clear skies and light winds Saturday night will allow temperatures
to fall into the lower and mid 20s, but another period of warming
returns on Sunday as the mean trough moves quickly east and flow
becomes more zonal over the plains region.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Fast upper flow punctuated by intermittent short waves continues
in the extended period with strongly split flow developing by
Tuesday. This puts the area between the cold northern stream flow
from the northern plains into Great Lakes region and the moist
southern stream across the southern plains and lower Mississippi
Valley. This results in dry weather for the area leading up to the
Thanksgiving holiday with normal to above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

VFR conditions will continue through this evening, with southerly
to southeasterly winds increasing to around 10-15kt and some gusts
up to 20-25kt possible, mainly at KOFK/KOMA. Ceilings will
deteriorate to at least MVFR at all sites late tonight, and
potentially to IFR at KOMA/KLNK. Have included a period of
drizzle/mist and reduced visibility possible at KOMA/KLNK in the
morning, coinciding with the potential for the lowest ceilings.
Conditions could improve at KOFK by midday, but have held off
improvement at KOMA/KLNK through 18Z Friday.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Mayes



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