Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 220021 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
721 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND SEVERE
WX WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RED FLAG
WARNING WILL GO UNTIL 7 PM WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUBSIDING WITH
SUNSET. COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. COULD HAVE SOME UPPER 30S READINGS IN OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH AROUND 40 TO LOW 40S TOWARD THE SOUTH. VERY HIGH
FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES ON TUESDAY
SO WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

BIG QUESTION FOR LATE TUESDAY IS HOW MUCH RETURN MOISTURE WE CAN
WORK INTO THE AREA WITH RETREATING DRY AIRMASS. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND IS
FORECAST TO BRING NEAR +5 TO +7C 850MB DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY
12Z WED. WOULD ANTICIPATE SCATTERED TSTMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LLVL JET/STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ALONG THIS AXIS AND SO
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS IN OUR EAST SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT TUE INTO
WED MORNING. GFS/NAM/SREF/ECMWF ALL DEVELOP A SMALL VORT MAX THAT
RIDES ON TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE CWA BY 12Z WED. THIS COULD
BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM POTENTIAL COMPLEX OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

EXPECT ANY LINGERING MORNING TSTMS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WED MORNING
AS THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING NEAR +10C 850MB DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
ESPECIALLY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES...AN ELONGATED SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN SD SWWD TO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z
THU. A FEW IMPULSES EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE
ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE PARAMETERS
CONTINUE TO COME TOGETHER...ESPECIALLY LATE WED AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB WITH SUFFICIENT BULK LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY WEAKENS THE CLOSER WE GET
TO THE MO RIVER VALLEY WHERE STORMS MAY BE HIGHER BASED. THE NAM
WOULD SUPPORT A TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE GRAND ISLAND AREA WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING E/SE ACROSS THE CWA. STILL A LITTLE WAYS OUT
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHERE ALL THE FEATURES BEGIN TO COME
TOGETHER.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH CENTRAL NEB BY 12Z
THURSDAY WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE MO RIVER AT THAT TIME.
LINGERING POST FRONTAL PCPN IS QUITE POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

WEAK UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...COLD AIR TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH
BRINGING NEGATIVE 850MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE RED FLAG WARNING COVERING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
WEST CENTRAL IOWA HAS EXPIRED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE
FIRE WEATHER...DEE



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