Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 161140
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
540 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Icing conditions continue across the area this morning with radar
and surface observations showing generally light amounts since
last evening. Pockets of higher returns were imbedded in the
lighter areas with larger pocket moving into northeast Nebraska
between KOLU and KBVN at 08Z. An expanding area of precip over
Kansas was also lifting north toward the Nebraska border.

Latest RAP model brings greatest QPF into southeast portion of the
forecast area between 12Z-18Z as surface low and upper closed low
move into eastern Kansas. Temperatures are expected to climb above
freezing in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by late morning
into the early afternoon which should limit ice accumulations in
those areas during that time. Precip begins to then diminish by
mid afternoon into the evening as system moves east of the area
with a baroclinic band setting up across northeast Nebraska. Still
not much cold air available for this system with snowfall expected
to be quite limited on the backside through the evening as it
tracks rapidly towards the lower Great Lakes region. Most of the
precip should be east of the area by 06Z with trailing upper
trough helping to kick mid level moisture eastward through 12Z.

Warming trend begins for the area on Tuesday with well above
normal temperatures by Wednesday for a welcomed January thaw.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Progressive amplified westerly flow looks to continue through the
extended period.

The warming trend for the area continues through the remainder of
the work week and into the weekend although the chance of more
precipitation returns by late Friday and over the weekend as a
series of upper level waves roll through the region. Temperatures
are expected to be warm enough for mainly rain during the day
periods with periods of freezing rain possible at night in some
locations as lows drop to just below freezing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Widespread LIFR and IFR conditions are expected today into tonight.
Spotty precipitation will become more widespread and intense this
morning at KOMA/KLNK, and then spread into KOFK by mid day while
decreasing by early afternoon for KOMA/KLNK to drizzle for
sprinkles. For precipitation type we will likely see just rain
for the KOMA terminal with some FZRA for KLNK and KOFK. Will
include some -SN for the late afternoon at KOFK before it all
ends. Winds will become northwest behind a front this evening and
increase overnight with visby becoming VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Ice Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ015-032>034-
     042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030-031.

IA...Ice Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Tuesday for IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Boustead



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