Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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383
FXUS63 KOAX 280830
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
330 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Water vapor imagery and regional VWP this morning
revealing pair of minor vort maxes...one over ern MT with the other
over srn Neb.
Disturbances where adding support to several areas of elevated
convection from wrn Neb into the wrn Dakotas and ern MT where
MUCAPES were 500-1000J/KG. And at this point...with both HRRR and
RAP13 indicate wrn CWA should be spared from seeing any pcpn this
morning...will maintain dry fcst. However...HRRR along with the
NAM12 and CMC hint area of convection will develop this aftn over
wrn Neb with increasing areal coverage approaching the SWRN early
this evening then slowly expand EWD over portions of the CWA on
Friday. Confidence of this actually taking place is quite low...thus
will stick with small token POPs.

Friday night through Saturday night...feel somewhat compelled to
maintain small POPs in the fcst given series of Pac NW impulses
dropping into the region...any of which could spark off a few TSRAs.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

GFS/ECM/CMC QPF fields continue to be all over the place...making
POP fcst quite problematic. However...there is some agreement a
series of frontal boundaries will drop out of the north and into the
CWA...one Monday night then another Wednesday night. Models indicate
shear will be present to allow for possible severe storm
development. However...far enough out to not be concerned with it at
this time. Otherwise...increasing hgts will allow for max temps to
rebound into the low/mid 90s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Isolated storms possible east and south of TAF sites as upper
short wave and weak surface cold front move across the area
through 06z.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Fobert



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