Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 300445
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT. A SUBTLE WAVE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAD 20 TO 30 METER
HEIGHT FALLS AT H50...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA. MOISTURE IS MEAGER AT BEST...WITH A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BENEATH A MID CLOUD DECK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS IOWA OVERNIGHT...AND ANYTHING
THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF OUR CWA.
OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SMOKE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. THICKER SMOKE WAS NOTED ACROSS
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS NOTICEABLE AFTER
DARK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED 594 DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE VISIBLE TOPPING
THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE MEAN EASTERN US TROUGH. THE FIRST OF
THESE WAS LOCATED OVER WRN NEB/ERN CO AT 12Z...WITH THE NEXT OVER
MN AND EVEN FURTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE MOVING INTO THE PAC
NW. ANY EFFECTS FM THE MN SHRTWV WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FA
BY 12Z ON TUE...BUT THE PAC NW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TOPPING
THE RIDGE AND HEADING FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DECENT H85 TO H7 WAA WILL GET GOING FROM SD
INTO NEB BY LATE MORNING...AND INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. STRONG LIFT IS INDICATED ON THE 310 K SFC
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN A NW TO SE ORIENTED BAND INTO NE NEB BY
AFTERNOON WITH CON PRES DEF DROPPING BELOW 50 MB. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
ISO/SCT TSRA BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION OF STRONGER LIFT. AS
THE ACTUAL QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON TUE NIGHT TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE THAT LIFT FURTHER
INCREASES...PEAKING DURING THE EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS ON TUE NIGHT INTO
THE LIKELY CAT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE SOUTH ON WED MORNING BUT WILL
LINGER SOME POPS INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE LIFT SHIFTS
SEWD. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WED AFTN AND
WED NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA ON THU.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THIS SYSTEM APPEARS STRONGER THAN THE TUE
NIGHT SYSTEM...BUT STATIC STABILITY WILL ALSO BE HIGHER...AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
PROVIDING OUR FA WITH A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR. NEVERTHELESS THE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD OVERCOME SOME OF THE DRY AIR AND LEAD
TO A CHC OF SHOWERS FM NE NEB THU AFTERNOON SPREADING TO THE REST
OF THE AREA ON THU NIGHT. HAVE ALSO COOLED THE HIGHS FOR WED
THROUGH FRI WITH THE CWA WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL HIGH TO
THE NORTHEAST...AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.

WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE A DRY PERIOD AFTER THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVERING...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ARRIVE NEAR THE AREA ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE REGION. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FOR
NEXT MON WITH THE GFS WASHING THIS FRONT OUT AND ALLOWING FOR HOT
CONDITIONS WHILE THE EC HAS THE SUNDAY FRONT SETTLING TO THE
SOUTH AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH CLIMATOLOGY
GIVEN THE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
PATCHY MVFR VSBY IN HAZE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH 18Z AS THICK
SMOKE LAYER HANGS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z MAINLY ALONG THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA BORDER INTO WESTERN IOWA AS SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...FOBERT


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