Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 231721
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1221 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

CLOSED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE
LEAD WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN IOWA WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING...PUSHING A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH IT.
THE AREA OF PERSISTENT RAIN SHOULD BE ALMOST NORTH OF THE REGION
BY 12Z...BUT COULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ALONG AND NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. SPOTTY SHOWERS ALSO ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS COULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA YET THIS MORNING...WHICH
HRRR/RAP BOTH INDICATE. WITH WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL HELP
TO BOOST TEMPS TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS. MOST OF
THE AREA WILL ALSO STAY DRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EASTERN
NEBRASKA COULD BEGIN TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM...BUT BETTER CHANCE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN ON THE WARM/UNSTABLE SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...AND WHILE NOT EXPECTING RAIN LIKE WE HAVE HAD THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOIST JET AXIS COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED STORMS
FOR MOST AREAS...THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WE
ALREADY HAD IN THE FORECAST. THIS WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE
FORWARD PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERE
WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED WITH H70 TEMPS IN THE +11/+12 RANGE...BUT
COULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE ALONG THE FRONT
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR OR ALONG I80...
WHICH AGAIN COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR A 20/30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY THEN LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH ON MONDAY...WHICH
WILL DELINEATE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH DECENT BUST POTENTIAL BASED ON WHERE FRONT SETS
UP...BUT STILL PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT REMAINS STALLED IN THE REGION...PROVIDING
THE NECESSARY FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING THE
PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION WITH ECMWF REMAINING VERY SLOW AND DEFINITELY
COOLER...WHILE THE GFS SWEEPS THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST. WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY FOR NOW...AND WILL MONITOR
LATER ECMWF MODEL RUNS AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

AREA OF MVFR CIGS BEHIND EXITING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL HANG
AROUND IN KOFK AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT BEGINNING OF TAF
CYCLE. THOSE CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID AFTERNOON LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25KT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL TRIGGERED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z WITH ATTENDANT MVFR/IFR
POTENTIAL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DERGAN



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