Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 292308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM WILL BE ANY LIGHT
SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TEMPERATURES...AND CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF
INTEREST WAS THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER ONTARIO CANADA
WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. OF NOTE ON THE H3 MAP WAS THE H3 JET OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT H5...THE
STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW IN
CANADA AND THESE TRAILED SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS NOTED AT H5 AT KLBF ON THEIR 12Z SOUNDING. THE BETTER
H7 AND H85 MOISTURE WAS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS.H85
DEWPOINTS OF 14-16 DEG C FROM NEW MEXICO INTO TX/OK/SOUTHERN KS.

THERE IS A POCKET OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION/WEAKENING H85-H7
FRONTOGENESIS WITH PATCHY MID LEVEL CUMULUS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES. ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK RIGHT ENTRANCE JET LIFT. HAVE
ADDED SOME SPRINKLES WITH THESE FEATURES. MOST OF THE MODELS WERE
DRY...HOWEVER THE HRRR AND THE HRRRX DID HINT AT THIS IN THEIR
ASSIMILATED REFLECTIVITY FIELDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH THURSDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A WEST TO
EAST INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPING AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS
AXIS. WE ARE IN NORTHWEST LOW ALOFT AND THE FORCING IS WEAK.
INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE TO 2000 J/KG THURSDAY NIGHT AND 4000
J/KG FRIDAY.  DO MENTION ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WEAK FORCING IN THIS PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES
TO THE WEST WITH THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF TO OUR EAST AND WE
REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE EC TRIES TO BRING A DEEPER
WAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN



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