Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 212328
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN SHORT
TERM CONCERNS...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK.

BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 40S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING
AREAS DUE TO CALM CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL WELL SHY OF THE RECORDS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE RECORD LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

PLEASANT WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE 22ND...THE START OF FALL. FALL
BEGINS AT 929PM CDT. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
LOOK FOR INCREASING CIRRUS AND THEN MID CLOUDS AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST.

THE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL OPEN UP OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY AND PUSH INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...DEEP
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH RETURNS TO THE
WESTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INCREASE THE PWAT AT KOFK TO AROUND AN INCH BY MIDNIGHT AT
KOFK...BUT STILL ONLY AROUND .5 OF AN INCH AT KOMA. BOTH INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.25 INCH BY 12Z TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE RESIDES
AT H750MB OR HIGHER.  SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM STALLS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. THE STALLED SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERIODIC SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE H5 LONGWAVE TROF WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GETS DISCONNECTED
FROM THE STRONGER FLOW OVER CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT H5
TROF IS MOVING ONSHORE FRIDAY SO FORCING IS WEAK TO NIL.
INITIALLY CARRY SOME ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE POPS...THEN THESE
BECOME MORE AND MORE DRY. DUE TO THE LOW COVERAGE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...LOCAL OFFICES HAVE GONE MAINLY DRY. STILL MAINLY DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
NEARLY CALM AFTER 01Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RIVER FOG WILL DEVELOP
AROUND KOAX AROUND 11Z BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANYTHING IN THE KOAX
TAF AT THIS TIME. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER MONDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AFTER 16Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MEYER



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