Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 302029
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
329 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

CHILLY WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND ACTUALLY SPARKED A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THAT FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTH NOW...HOWEVER A SECONDARY COLD
PUSH WAS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WAS NOTED BY A
WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND BANK OF LOW CLOUDS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOVEMENT PUTS
THIS BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN CWA LATER TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA AS WELL...WITH ANY ONE LOCATION SEEING SEVERAL HOURS OF CLOUD
COVER BEFORE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT...BUT
AIRMASS IS QUITE A BIT COOLER JUST TO OUR NORTH. HAVE LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S MOST SPOTS...BUT MAY HOLD IN THE 30S IN OUR SOUTH WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S ON FRIDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...BUT COOL
AIRMASS AND LACK OF MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS CHILLY.

EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN A COOL
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EAST. NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY SEE A RISE IN TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HAVE LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER TEENS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY...BUT COLD START AND SLOWLY
ERODING COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE ON TEMPS. HIGHS
WILL LIKELY REBOUND BACK TOWARD 50 SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL KEEP THINGS FEELING CHILLY.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HOLD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HOLDING
LOWS IN THE 30S AND PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. WARM
ADVECTION MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...BUT THOSE
SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BREEZY
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDER EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST THROUGH THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UNDER SOUTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE A DECENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME CAPABLE OF
SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING TO
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SHOWER
CHANCE UNTIL THIS BOUNDARY EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN
GFS SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SPREADING INTO THE CWA.
THIS COMBINED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GFS
SHOWS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THUNDER CHANCE
BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTION GOING.

WILL END RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT AND BULK OF MOISTURE MOVE
AWAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW KEEPS COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE. AN IFR TO MVFR DECK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO QUICKLY DROP SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN



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