Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 171821
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
121 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS EAST ACROSS KANSAS FROM LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR/THETA-E
ADVECTION TO OUR SOUTH HAS GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE
OVER OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED LAST EVENING SHOULD
MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SFC TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY.

WE HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL POPS THAT HAD BEEN IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM. A MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A DRY PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS NEAR 850MB FRONT AND SPREAD INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. WILL CARRY A SMALL POP IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE/FOG OVERNIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH.

CLOUDS LOOK SLOW TO MOVE OUT ON THURSDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY
OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FORECAST AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE OVERHEAD WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 06Z/SAT. EARLIER THIS WEEK
WE WERE A BIT CONCERNED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TS ODILE WAS
GOING TO BRING TO THE FORECAST AREA BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WILL MOVE JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS.
THE 00Z ECMWF WASHES THE COLD FRONT OUT OVER THE AREA WITH A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE 00Z GFS HOLDS ON TO A MORE DEFINED
COLD FRONT AND DROPS IT THROUGH THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. IN
ANY CASE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE SLOWED DOWN SOMEWHAT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS SO THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN FOR LINGERING
PCPN IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA SATURDAY EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TO OUR
NORTHEAST DRAGS COOLER TEMPS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LINGERING STRATUS AND CUMULUS IN WESTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. COMPLEX
CLOUD AND FOG FORECAST TONIGHT. MID CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. FOR NOW WILL
INCLUDE VFR CIGS WITH THE MID CLOUDS...THEN INCREASING FOG AND
STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR/DRIZZLE CONDITIONS...IMPROVING AFTER
15-16Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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