Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 220814
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A CUTT-OFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX IS
EXPECTED FOR THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE RETURN TO OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS ON A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL
JET OF 30-40 KT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS WARM-AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WRN AND THEN CNTRL NEB OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP
EASTERN EDGE TO THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR REMAINING OVER
WRN IA AND SE NEB AS WELL AS A BIT SLOWER EWD PROGRESS TO THE BAND
THAN OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER ERN NEB WHEN THE STRONGEST DPVA IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DOWN-TREND IN PRECIP TUE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WE MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT
OF ISO/SCT TSRA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS BETTER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE MOISTURE AXIS CREATING MARGINAL
SBCAPE VALUES IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE THREAT OF A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE MOISTURE
AXIS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIP WE HAVE LOWERED GOING
HIGHS ON TUES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEB BUT WE STILL MAY NOT
BE COOL ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. AS THE CUTT-OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE SHORT TERM WEAKENS AND FILLS...THE RIDGE
TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS CREATING A
TEMPORARY REX BLOCK OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FA AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL JUST AFTER
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
BUT SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP WITH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE. AT 04Z KICL REPORTED 4SM BR FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE
IMPROVING TO 10SM AGAIN. BETTER CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
IN RIVER VALLEYS. WINDS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH AROUND 15Z WHEN THEY BECOME SOUTH AND WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LESS THAN 5KTS
AFTER 01Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MEYER


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