Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 101123
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
523 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

A northwest mid-level flow regime will prevail across the north-
central U.S. today ahead of a short-wave trough cresting an
amplified ridge over British Columbia. In the low levels, early-
morning surface observations indicate a notably warmer air mass
(owing to downslope-induced compressional warming) to our
immediate west which will overspread the region today. And while
we may see some increase in high clouds, afternoon temperatures
should warm into the mid to upper 50s over our western counties
with upper 40s to lower 50s over southwest Iowa. Winds may become
gusty from the northwest with the onset of daytime heating, which
combined with the warm temperatures and dry conditions, could
yield an elevated fire weather concern across our western
counties.

Tonight into Monday, the aforementioned British Columbia
disturbance will track southeast through the mid-MO Valley with
another perturbation on it`s immediate heels. These systems will
be attended by a cold front which should move through the area
Monday morning. It doesn`t appear that this frontal passage will
be associated with a significantly colder air mass. However, winds
will become quite strong from the northwest; in the 25 to 35 mph
range with higher gusts possible. Given these winds and the
indication that the post-frontal air mass will not be
significantly cooler (i.e. Monday`s highs in the lower 40s to
lower 50s), there could be some fire weather concerns late Monday
morning into afternoon again over our western counties. Farther
to the north/northeast, available 00z model guidance is suggestive
that sufficient moistening and forcing for ascent could foster
some light rain or sprinkles Monday afternoon from near the South
Dakota border into west-central Iowa. It`s possible some light
snow could mix in before ending.

By Tuesday, the cooler low-level air which filtered into the
region behind Monday`s cold front will be scoured from west to
east with highs from the mid 40s west to upper 30s east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 239 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

On Wednesday, another short-wave trough and associated cold front
are forecast to move through the region, though model guidance
remains a bit dispersive with respect to the specific track of
the upper-air system. While we will likely see an increase in
clouds, precipitation potential remains uncertain due to that
model disparity. Therefore, we will maintain a generally dry
forecast at this juncture. Similar to the Monday system, winds
will strengthen from the north or northwest behind the cold front
with a cooler low-level air mass filtering into the region from
the north.

By Friday into the weekend, medium-range guidance is suggestive
that the persistent ridge over western North America will dampen
and retrograde into the eastern Pacific with a zonal jet
developing over the Pacific Northwest. These data indicate the
potential for a short-wave trough to move through the northern and
central Plains on Saturday with a chance of light precipitation
with the passage of that feature. Temperatures are expected to
remain above seasonal normals through the long-term forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

VFR conditions are expected today. Northwest surface winds will
become gusty to near 25 kts this afternoon before subsiding this
evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Kern



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