Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 301115
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
515 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

WV imagery this morning was showing a deep upper trof over the cntrl
conus along with a tight circulation/sfc reflection centered over
the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile...mosaic 88D was picking up returns
over the Dakotas/Upper Midwest with leading edge of the light snow
slowly approaching the NE/SD border. Snow activity all in part to
potent vort max rounding the backside of the upper level low...in
addition to rather stout 305k upglide per RAP13.

HIRES ARW/NMM as well as HRRR/RAP23 all remain consistent indicating
that accumulating snowfall over the nrn CWA this morning will be
limited as the aforementioned backside vort max/sfc low continues
pushing off to the east. And at this point...still feel amounts
around half an inch or less in the going fcst is still on track.

Otherwise...dry and cold conditions on tap Thursday and Friday
with max temps only in the mid/upper 30s both days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

ECM and GFS continue to show no significant weather to be concerned
about until next Saturday night when the next round of pcpn is
possible.

GFS/ECM/CMC in relatively  agreement advertising a Pac NW shortwave
trof moving into the cntrl plains with pcpn developing within the
warm sector just ahead of the wave. Models are also in decent
agreement northward expansion of activity will halt as it approaches
the I-80 corridor with initial pcpn a RA/SN mix before all SN after
midnight.

Otherwise...the GFS and CMC are advertising another big storm system
entering the cntrl plains with the potential for hefty SN
accumulations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 514 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Water vapor imagery as of 11z revealed a potent vorticity lobe
translating from South Dakota into eastern Nebraska with this
system expected to continue southeast across the area today. An
associated increase in large-scale forcing for ascent is expected
to promote an uptick in the areal coverage of light snow which
could impact both KOFK and KOMA at least through mid morning.
Expect MVFR ceilings to persist at all three TAF sites at least
into mid afternoon. Thereafter, latest model guidance indicates an
increased probability of ceilings becoming VFR at KLNK, which
could potentially scatter out tonight. Otherwise, expect gusty
northwest winds to continue today.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mead



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