Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 080838
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
338 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRIER
DEWPOINTS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
LOW 80S WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA 12Z/WED WITH ANOTHER MILD DAY IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AROUND THE HIGH BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER MOISTURE RETURN MOVING IN FOR
THURSDAY WHEN SFC DEWPOINTS RETURN INTO THE UPPER 60S. A RIBBON OF
NOCTURNAL TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN WAA ZONE ON NOSE OF
MODEST LLVL JET.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SFC WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NEB AND WESTERN IOWA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

THERE STILL REMAIN DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z
GFS PLACES THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER
WHEREAS THE 00Z ECMWF PLACES THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A CONTINUED FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FOR ALL ELEMENTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND WENT WITH A
BLANKET CHANCE POP.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AT 05Z WITH ANOTHER
BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER
ON THE BACKSIDE OF EARLIER MCS CURRENTLY OVER NW MISSOURI. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DECREASING HIGH CLOUDS AT
KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...FOBERT


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