Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 290520
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

WARM AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS. WEST SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD YIELD LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S...AND VERY MILD ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL BE INTO THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS BY THEN INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 MPH.
SHOULD SEE GENERALLY FALLING TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
REACHED VERY EARLY. MODELS ALSO INDICATE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
COMING IN WITH THE ARCTIC AIR. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT
WILL MONITOR LATER TRENDS FOR WHAT COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING IN NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING TEMPS BACK INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING OUT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS HAVE GENERALLY KEPT PRECIP CHANCES JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH 12Z RUNS MAY NOW BE SUGGESTING IT COULD
BE FURTHER WEST. WILL WAIT FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY TO SEE IF THIS
TREND HOLDS. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON WHETHER THE TROUGH IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. GFS SAYS
YES...BUT ECMWF SAYS NO. PREFER TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND
SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD AFFECT KOMA AND KOFK FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
LOOK FOR VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY
AROUND 06Z SUNDAY AT KOFK THEN AFTER 06Z SUNDAY AT KOMA AND KLNK.
THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



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