Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 181732
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE OF THESE SUBTLE
WAVES...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ALL DIRECTIONS AROUND US...EXCEPT
TO THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNRISE IS LOW AS TO HOW MUCH FOG
WE WILL SEE...BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ON US FROM THE
OUTER EDGES.  CLOSE TEMP/DEW POINT  SPREADS AND WEAK EASTERLY SFC
FLOW SHOULD WARRANT AT LEAST A PATCHY MENTION IN ALL AREAS THROUGH
SUNRISE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS CLOSELY AND MAKE ANY LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AIDED BY A 35-40KT LLVL JET. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AROUND THE 301K SFC IS MAXIMIZED AND HAVE CONTINUED SMALL POPS FOR
THIS.

WE WILL HAVE A WARM START TO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S. FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME
TEMPS EASILY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AHEAD OF A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN AVN ISSUE IS POSSIBLE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING.
CURRENT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING BOTH KOFK/KOMA DROPPING INTO IFR
TERRITORY SOMETIME BTWN 10Z-12Z...AND KLNK TO MVFR CONDITIONS.
OVERALL THOUGH...HAVE NOT BEEN TOO IMPRESSED LATELY WITH MODEL
TEMP/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS THE LAST COUPLE MORNINGS.
HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY DISREGARD WORSENING FLIGHT CAT...SO HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE EARLY MORNING TEMPO GROUPS/MVFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE


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