Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 072053
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
353 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CHILLY TEMPERATURES
AND PATCHY FOG...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT THURSDAY NIGHT.

QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND EVEN NEAR A RECORD AT EPPLEY
AIRFIELD THIS AM. TEMPERATURES DROPPED TO 54 DEGREES AND THE
RECORD LOW SET IN 1908 IS 52. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S. AGAIN TONIGHT...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN DROP INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S IN
LOCAL COLD SPOTS. THE RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE 51/50/48
AT OMAHA/LNK/OFK...SET IN 1891/1891/1920 RESPECTIVELY. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN PLATTE AND ELKHORN RIVER VALLEYS.

AT H5...THE LEADING TROF STRETCHED FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND ANOTHER TROF WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH H5 CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE H85 FRONT IS NEAR KANSAS CITY AND A
FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WERE NOTED THERE. PWATS WERE .5 TO 1 INCH
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WERE CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES TOWARD
KANSAS CITY. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME WEAK LIFT. THE H85 FRONT
LIFTS FARTHER NORTH TOWARD FALLS CITY AND SOUTHERN IOWA WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAIN IS GOING TO BE A CONCERN FOR PARTS OF KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD GET
CLIPPED WITH A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
H85 CIRCULATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM MISSOURI AND
PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES FOR THIS AREA.  THE H5 TROF SWINGS
THROUGH ACROSS CANADA WITH A WEAK REFLECTION IN OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND PUSHES THE MOISTURE SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY.

THE CLOSED H5 LOW IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY AND THE H85 FLOW INCREASES ACROSS KANSAS...LIFTING INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THERE IS SOME SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY TO WORK WITH AND
PWATS HAVE RETURNED TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
THURSDAY WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING EASTWARD
FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIER
RAIN WILL MAKE IT. THE EC BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THE
NAM/GFS AND WAS CLOSER TO THE UKMET. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF
NEEDED...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

DRIER AND HOTTER FOR THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE
RIDGE COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

GENERALLY LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME FOG OR HAZE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST/SOUTHEAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER


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