Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 271121
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A RARE DRY DAY WILL GRACE US WITH ITS PRESENCE...BEFORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK LOW HAD SLID
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ID/NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHEAST WA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE QUITE
WEAK...WITH SCANT AREAS OF 50+KT EVEN AT 300/250MB.  SURFACE HIGH AT
07Z WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.  HAVE SIGNFICANTLY SLOWED TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  MAIN
RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET...AND AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER VERY
WELL COULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
WEAK IN THE CWA...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AIMED INTO CENTRAL
NEB...BUT DID KEEP THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR NOW.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME..WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES LIKELY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH WEAK FEATURES...AND
WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY IMPEDED BY ONGOING CONVECTION...THINK
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ABRUPT...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED THE EXIT OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND DRIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSECUTIVE DRY
DAYS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL US...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH HINT OF POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT EAST ACROSS KOFK AND KLNK
OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES CAN
ADDRESS THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



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