Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 192339
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
639 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE HOW QUICK STORMS WILL FORM TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE HEAT WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY AND PERIODIC
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA.

AT 20Z...THE SURFACE FRONT APPEARED TO BE AROUND HILL CITY IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS...TO NEAR TOPEKA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
AROUND NORFOLK. DEWPOINTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.

THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALWAYS TRICKY. ON THE
POSITIVE SIDE...THERE IS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...THETA-E
ADVECTION...INCREASING OMEGA AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH
12Z...THEN LIFT NORTH. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...THERE IS A RAMP-UP
TIME DURING THE EVENING FOR MOISTURE RETURN. PWAT VALUES DO
INCREASE INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN...HOWEVER...HOW FAR SOUTH WITH THE RAIN DEVELOP?
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH AND CHANCE POPS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN-BETWEEN THROUGH THE OMAHA GLENWOOD AND
WAHOO AREAS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AT LINCOLN AND DRY IN THE
SOUTH. THE HI-RESOLUTION MODELS TEND TO INCREASE THE PRECIP
CHANCES AFTER 06Z...SO WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW PRIOR TO THEN.A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
THE HEAT BUILDS IN.

IT SHOULD BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASE
INTO THE 95 TO 104 AREA.

RIPPLES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WITH CONTINUED HOT
WEATHER AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE
OF THESE WAVES MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE FRONT
SOUTH...HOWEVER NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL PUSH. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY HAVE HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH...BUT IN THE 90S SOUTH. IN
GENERAL THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY
SIDE UNLESS STORMS PROPAGATE INTO THE WARM AIR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE SURFACE FRONT IS STILL IN THE COUNTY WARNING FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE EC IS STILL FASTER WITH THE
PASSAGE SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH MONDAY. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY WILL GO WITH A BLEND AND FOR NOW...WE ARE LEANING
TOWARD A FASTER PASSAGE...WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND HAVE CONTINUED
A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN


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