Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 190834
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
334 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER MIDDLE AMERICA SATURDAY...
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO OUR CWA. HOWEVER A
CHILLY AIRMASS OVERHEAD KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 60 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY AS THE HIGH WAS SLIDING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN.

SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST UPPER FLOW WAS NOTED ON UPPER AIR CHARTS
SATURDAY EVENING. WITHIN THAT FLOW...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ITS EAST-SOUTHEAST TREK THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NUDGING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...
HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SATURDAY READINGS. SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT HIGHS A BIT...BUT SHOULD STILL
REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

FRONT WILL LIMP THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH BULK OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY SHOOTING OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RULE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SETTLE INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND LINGERING THERE MOST OF
MONDAY. HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD REACH 70 MONDAY AS COOLING BEHIND
BOUNDARY IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL IN
THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH AIRMASS SIMILAR TO MONDAY SUGGESTS
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL COME CLOSE TO MONDAY READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES FINALLY RETURN IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES INTO THE PLAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
FAIRLY SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILES.

INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AS TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH MAXIMUM OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACH 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ALMOST 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL MID OCTOBER VALUES. COMBINATION OF
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SPELL
FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY FORECASTS LOOK RELATIVELY BENIGN IN REGARDS
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CERTAINLY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
LIKELY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SHALLOW UPPER
RIDGING SHOULD RETURN US BACK TO A DRY AND MILD FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...FROM
09-16Z AT KOFK...AND 11-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. OTHERWISE...JUST MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS
INITIALLY...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND SOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS BY
16-17Z...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS A VERY WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA NEAR KOFK BY 22Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



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