Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 231710
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1110 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL MAINLY BE TEMPERATURES AND IF
WE WILL SEE ANY SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER REMAINS ON THE QUIET SIDE AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORT TERM WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE U.S.  WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO WARMING AHEAD
OF A WIND SHIFT TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE
HRRR/RAP ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS. THE SHORTWAVE TROF DRAGGING
THROUGH THE FRONT...IS TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO/QUEBEC. PER THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR MOSAIC/METARS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT 09Z...THE WIND SHIFT WAS NEAR BISMARCK ND.
JUST A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE NEAR FARGO. TODAY...THE
WINDSHIFT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE WIND SHIFT WILL ARRIVE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS MORNING AND THE OMA/CBF/LNK AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS DO NOT LOOK TOO STRONG...MAINLY
IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT.

CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SECOND...STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM MINNESOTA INTO IOWA AND THEN
OHIO WITH A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY.  THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND WAVE
ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE 150KT
JET AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND
COULD RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN. THE
NAM IS THE DRIEST...GFS HAS MAINLY SPRINKLES AND THE EC/GEM SHOW
SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE (0.05 OR LESS). ADDED SPRINKLE MENTION AND
LEFT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN MENTION IN. THE FORECAST AREA IS ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION...SO ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT. H9 WINDS OF 40 TO
45KTS WILL RESULT IN BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 50S. LOWERED HIGHS TO A RANGE
OF MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
NORTH WINDS AND MAY HAVE TO LOWER FURTHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

WE START OUT THE EXTENDED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TUESDAY. A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S/50S CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
DAY...JUST NOT AS MILD BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. A BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP FRIDAY AND BEYOND WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW.
THE MORE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES ARE FARTHER NORTH FOR
NOW. THIS IS STILL A LONG WAYS OUT...AND TIMING/LOCATION WILL
LIKELY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
00Z...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 12KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN



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