Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 282046
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WHEN AND WHERE TO
INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF SMOKE. THIS SMOKE PLUME STRETCHED FROM
FIRES IN CANADA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO NEBRASKA/KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. GOOD MIXING ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE
80S BY 3PM. THE SMOKE WAS DENSE ENOUGH OVER LINCOLN FOR THEM TO
DROP TWO DEGREES FROM 89 TO 87 BETWEEN 2PM AND 3PM. THE H5
PATTERN HAD THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE TO THE
WEST AND A LARGE TROF TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN
RIVER VALLEYS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S THROUGH MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP CU IN
CHECK...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN AIRMASS THUNDERSTORM WITH
HEATING MONDAY. THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR EAST. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY...HOWEVER THE MIXING IS NOT AS GOOD. HAVE HIGHS FOR MONDAY
IN THE MID 86 TO 91.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AN 80KT H30 JET OVER CANADA
STRENGTHENS TO 100KTS AND DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA.
THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE LIFT OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA...DRAGGING
A FRONT THROUGH WITH H85 MOISTURE POOLING TOWARD THE SD/NE/IA
BORDERS. MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS WITH H7 MOISTURE POOLING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCLUDED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS. 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE
FAIRLY STRONG FROM 35 TO 45KTS AND INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
SEVERE STORMS.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DROPS SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. H5
RIDGING RETREATS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 12 TO 25
KNOTS UNTIL ABOUT 00Z...THEN LESS THAN 6 KNOTS AFTER THAT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD


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