Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 241134
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
634 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

DRY SPELL COMES TO END FOR THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AT 07Z IN ADVANCE OF
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND ALONG 850MB WARM
ADVECTION MAX. 850MB FEATURE WEAKENS AND UPPER WAVE BECOMES
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM THROUGH SUNRISE.

PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND UPPER WAVE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INCREASING UVV. PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREAT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INDICATED
BY MODELS. INSTABILITY THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH POPS DECREASING FROM THE WEST AS UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE IOWA NEBRASKA BORDER. LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA BEFORE ENDING AS SYSTEM
TRACKS TO THE EAST.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COLDER THURSDAY WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW STARTS OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
AREA BETWEEN A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ENERGY DIVES
OUT OF CANADA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND COOL DOWN INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY WARMING TEMPS MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RA WILL CONT TO MOV ACRS KLNK/KOMA EARLY THIS MRNG WITH POSSIBLE
TSRA AT KLNK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK
IN PRECIP AT THOSE TWO AIRPORTS BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN MOVES INTO ALL 3 TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE MRNG. MVFR
CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KLNK/KOMA AND WILL MOVE INTO KOFK OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SOME IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VISBY LIKELY IN THE MORE
STEADY RAIN TODAY. RA MOVES OUT BY LATE AFTN WITH SOME POSSIBLE
CLEARING BY EVNG. IF CLEARING OCCURS WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG BY
LATE EVNG AND EARLY TONIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL
RH. ANY FOG CONCERNS SHLD DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



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