Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 271134
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
634 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED THROUGH OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES...BUT ALSO
MOVING NORTH AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO...BASED ON HRRR/RAP MODEL GUIDANCE. BELIEVE THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD OCCUR
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...ON THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME...AND TWEAKED FOR
TIME OF DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER DUE TO A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. MONDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE NEXT TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WEST COAST...MOVES
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY. THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT DOESN`T MOVE IN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL HAVE
POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...AND THEN
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE NOW FLIPPING
WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER MOVING THE PRECIP OUT...WITH THE GFS
HOLDING ONTO PRECIP WELL INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING PRECIP OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST.
COOLER/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY. WENT DRY ON FRIDAY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES TODAY. SOME SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS FL080-120. TONIGHT...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KOFK. DUE TO ISOLATED
NATURE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN
10KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KTS WITH GUSTS
18-24KT LATE AM...THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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