Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 151116

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
516 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Satl imagery this morning was showing gradual clearing taking place
from west to east with the back edge of stratus roughly extending
from northwest IA to northeast KS. Thus just a matter of time now
before cloud cover breaks over the CWA.

For spite of a cold front pushing through, plenty of
sunshine over the region should allow highs to top out in the upper
40s to low 50s.

Precip chances increase heading into this weekend. Surface low
deepens Thursday night over SD in response to approaching Pacific NW
wave. Strong moist warm air advection ensues then into the central
Plains. As the low shifts into eastern SD Friday afternoon,
attendant warm front is progged to push across eastern NE into
western IA while leading edge of trailing cold front drops into NE.
At this point...with Bufkit soundings showing no introduction of ice
Friday/Friday evening, column appears to be more indicative for
light drizzle.

Soundings show the column eventually saturating late Friday night in
favor of rain. As brunt of cold air advection filters in, it appears
possible that portions of the northern CWA could see a mix of rain
and snow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Medium range models advertise progressive large scale flow
through the extended periods with no significant systems pushing
through to induce precip. As of now, looking at just slightly
above normal highs generally in the mid 40s to low 50s. Lows also
just above normal and generally in the upper 20s to low 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 515 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

VFR conditions through the period. Northwest winds around 12 knots
at TAF issuance. Gusts to about 22-24 knots develop by 15z, then
gusts diminish by 22-24z when winds become light and variable.




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