Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KOAX 181735
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS
DISSIPATING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS 1500-FT STRATUS DECK
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SHORT-TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CLOUD COVER MAINTAINING ITSELF THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING. DID ALLOW A RAPID DISSIPATION IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
MOISTURE LAYER IS THIN AND MIXING SHOULD INCREASE AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEB MOVES EASTWARD. FOR NOW...HAVE
NOT LOWERED TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOUDS...AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO GOT A WARMER START THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
CLOUDS...BUT COULD SEE SOME POCKETS STRUGGLING TO REACH CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IF CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN HAD NORTH OR NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA
THIS MORNING...ON BACK SIDE OF LARGE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO THE WEST...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS NOTED IN
THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALSO OF NOTE
WAS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL RIDE
INTO THE PLAINS AND DROP THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AND WILL DRIFT EAST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. RELATIVELY COOL ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR
AREA TODAY WILL BE SLOW TO MIX EAST UNDER LIGHT FLOW REGIME. SO
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO TOP 60 DESPITE PLENTY OF AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST AND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LOWS SHOULD HOLD ABOVE 40...THEN
REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY
HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 STILL REMAIN LIKELY.

COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING. ANOTHER SUNNY AND LIGHT WIND DAY IS EXPECTED
THEN...WITH HIGHS AGAIN APPROACHING 70 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY WILL SETTLE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
RATHER QUICKLY AS WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A SHARPER/STRONGER TROUGH
IN THE PLAINS THAN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES WERE HINTING AT JUST
24 HOURS AGO. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE INCREASED
SOME...WITH A LITTLE EARLIER START TIME.

PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH FROM WESTERN
MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH SURFACE FRONT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GET SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO BREAK...WITH INTERMITTENT COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT KOMA/KOFK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO UNTIL CLOUDS
SCATTER. CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10KT THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 12-14KT MID TO LATE
MORNING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAYES
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MAYES


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.