Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 260808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
308 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Last push of rain with this system is moving through the area.
Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates upper low centered in
southeast MT, with downstream ridge centered over MA/RI/CT, and with
a 120kt upper-level jet streak downstream of the trough from western
NE/western SD through central SD/eastern ND. Little in the way of
substantial 500mb height falls or rises was noted across the CONUS.
An 850mb low was centered in northern ON, with a secondary low in
NM, and with a cold front extending between the lows through
MN/central NE/western KS/OK-TX panhandles. Ahead of the front,
substantial moisture remained, with widespread 8C+ dewpoints and
with 12C+ dewpoints into northern KS-northwest MO. Behind it, 850mb
temperatures were 2-5C from the norhtenr Plains into central and
western NE. Surface trough at 07Z extended from WI through eastern
IA/central to southwest MO/eastern OK, with surface high from
western ND into western SD/western NE.

Main forecast concern is exit of lingering rain this morning, with
quiet weather and mild temperatures then expected through Thursday.
Subsidence is moving in rapidly this morning and should shunt
precipitation to the east and out of the area by mid-morning. Skies
should trend toward clearing, but cooler and cloudy start, along
with pocket of cool mid-level temperatures, should restrict highs
today to the 60s. Temperatures will recover into the 70s on
Wednesday as mid-level temperatures warm and winds turn westerly,
moderating a little further yet on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Upper-level ridge and surface to mid-level high will persist into
Friday, with upper-level lows centered in the northern Great Lakes
and in the northern Rockies. As ridge axis slowly passes to the east
into the weekend, surface to mid-level winds will become southerly,
drawing warmer and moister air into the central Plains, and upper-
level flow will become southwesterly. Temperatures should continue
to warm to above-normal readings through the weekend, if rain
doesn`t become too widespread. Intermittent chances for
showers/storms begin to appear on Saturday, ahead of the trough
and associated surface front and associated with ejecting weak
shortwave troughs. A more robust signal for rain develops on
Sunday night through Tuesday as the deep upper-level trough ejects
toward the Plains and a surface cold front slowly drags through
the central US (not all that different from the last couple of
days). Temperatures may remain fairly warm despite the rain as
models indicate mid-level temperatures continuing to moderate
through Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys will prevail through around 12Z at all
TAF sites with conditions expected to improve to MVFR 12Z to 18Z
then becoming VFR after 18Z as upper trough axis lifts across the
area into the upper Midwest.




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