Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 281121
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
621 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Timing of next shortwave currently moving into the four corners
area this morning will be the primary concern in the short term.

Area under the influence of shortwave ridging between Ohio Valley
trough and Four Corners trough early this morning. Latest model
runs bring the southwest trough into the southern Rockies by
tonight with strong moisture advection moving into eastern
Kansas in advance of the system. Forecast area looks to remain on
the cool side of this system with limited potential for
convection. Nonetheless, strong isentropic lift will bring
widespread rain into the area by late tonight with the rain
continuing into Thursday as the storm system tracks slowly
northeast toward the mid Mississippi Valley. Southern parts of the
area south of I-80 will likely see the most significant rainfall
during the event with up to 2 inches possible through Thursday
morning.

Temperatures will be near 60 today across most of the area but
cool to a more narrow diurnal range for Wednesday and Thursday as
persistent clouds and rain setup over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The rain should be east of the area by Thursday night with Friday
and Friday night also dry as ridging returns to the region in
advance of yet another strong trough moving into the southwest
CONUS. This system will bring another chance of rain to area for
the weekend although at this time there is little model consensus
regarding timing and track.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

MVFR cigs near FL025 at KOMA and KLNK will likely remain in place
through early afternoon before lifting to VFR. Meanwhile LIFR
vsbys in fog at KOFK should burn off rather quickly this morning,
with VFR vsbys expected by 16Z. Then a low pressure system moving
toward eastern Nebraska will draw low level moisture back north,
leading to MVFR cigs this evening, and eventually IFR cigs after
06Z when rain will become widespread.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Dergan



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