Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 300829
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
329 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TODAY

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME RETURNS DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN CWA THIS
MORNING WITHIN POCKET OF SUBTLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...WITH LIFT BEING
AIDED AS WELL VIA WEAK VORT MAX ALOFT. EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THOUGH WILL BE BRIEF IN NATURE AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES THRU
THE MORNING HOURS. AS FOR CLOUD COVER...IR IMAGERY DEPICTING BACK
EDGE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. PER LATEST HRRR/RAP13...CLOUD COVER WILL
PROBABLY HANG ON TIGHT AT LEAST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL
CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY COOL
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING...WITH ONLY MARGINALLY WARMER TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE MODELS DO HINT AT A VERY SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH COULD BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECONDARY VERY SUBTLE WAVE APPEARS TO MOVE OFF THE FRONT RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF MAINLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. THAT
COULD LINGER MONDAY MORNING...THEN DRY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWERED
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
GIVEN HIGH DEGREE OF EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

YET ANOTHER WEAK SUBTLE WAVE APPEARS TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND WITH INSTABILITY ALSO
RETURNING...SHOULD SEE MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS
TIME AS WELL. IN FACT...SEVERAL MORE SUBTLE WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE AREA AS THE
SLIGHTLY FLAT RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPS ALSO
RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S
BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VARIABLE SKY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH SOME EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND KOFK. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z AT KLNK AND KOMA BEFORE
CIGS IMPROVE 12Z-15Z. NORTH WINDS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO DIMINISH
SOONER THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT TO TIMING
POSSIBLE IF TREND CONTINUES BEYOND 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...FOBERT


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