Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 202005
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
305 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Primary forecast issues will be precipitation chances...mainly from
Sunday into Monday and temperatures through the period.

Main large scale feature of concern was the closed low along the
west coast of the United States. 12 hour height falls at 500 mb of
up to 170 meters were noted at 12z this morning. A jet max of
around 120 knots at 300 mb was located on the west side of the
circulation...so the system should continue to dig at least into
the evening hours. Closer to home...the much weaker closed low
that helped bring some light showers to parts of the area last
night and earlier today continued to move northeast toward
northern Illinois as of early this afternoon. As that moves
away...mid level ridging will build over the area into Saturday
night.

Tonight...we could see some sprinkles from the leftover clouds
early this evening...so did mention those mainly in northeast
Nebraska. We could also see some showers into parts of northeast
Nebraska late tonight..as hinted at by recent runs of the
experimental HRRR model. Did not include anything for late tonight
at this time...but will need to monitor.

We will probably keep some low thunderstorm chances for western
parts of the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday. Storm chances
are higher to our west...but some activity may be able to develop
eastward into our area before weakening/dissipating. On Sunday...
storms will likely develop to our west by late afternoon or early
evening... closer to the front. Large scale forcing will be much
better for late Sunday night into Monday...and precipitable water
should increase to around 1.50 inches. Compared to the previous
forecast...we slowed the eastward progression of storms...closer
to the 12Z ECMWF solution.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

The pattern will generally be unsettled through this period...and
will have to include pops of at least 20 percent each 12 hour block.
If anything...would still tend of favor the ECMWF solution...which
would have Wednesday night and Thursday mainly dry.

Starting Tuesday...we expect a 500 mb trough to stretch from central
Canada southwestward to off the California coast. The southern end
of the trough will move east into the Rockies by Thursday...with
tendency for a closed low in the four corners region by that time.
Timing individual shortwaves moving out into our area will be
difficult and will have to fine tune precipitation chances as we get
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Variable conditions are expected for the first 6 hours of the
TAF...most likely between VFR and MVFR. A few isolated sprinkles
are possible through the afternoon as well. VFR conditions are
expected through the overnight.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Kern


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