Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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438
FXUS63 KOAX 260911
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
411 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS EXTEND OF SEVERE WX THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH 50 METER HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF
IT OFF 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD OFF OF THE GULF AS +15C 850MB DEWPOINTS AT 00Z
WERE ADVECTING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
+10C AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SFC
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
AND ALONG NOSE OF LLVL JET. ISOLATED HAIL IS MAIN HAZARD THIS
MORNING WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST RECENT CAM`S PUSH
THIS ACTIVITY EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH 15Z. MORNING CONVECTION WILL
PLACE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHWEST
MISSOURI AND WILL MUDDY UP THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. CAM`S PLACE
TRIPLE POINT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND 18Z WITH EWD
EXTENDING WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION COULD HINDER NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF WARM FRONT. IF WARM SECTOR CAN MANAGE TO LIFT INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEB...FEEL THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A TORNADIC
THREAT GIVEN CURVED HODOGRAPHS ONCE CAP ERODES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUT THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IN ALL THIS IS: HOW FAR NORTH THE
WARM FRONT CAN ADVANCE GIVEN MORNING OUTFLOW. ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF ROTATING GIVEN STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PW`S 225% OF NORMAL. THE AREA MOST AT
RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND THIS AREA HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED IN THE DAY ONE EXCESSIVE HEAVY
RAIN.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW. WEDNESDAY FORECAST REMAINS MESSY AND
DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. SOME RISK FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY BUT
FORECAST IS NOT REAL CLEAR CUT.

UPPER LOW PULLS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING
DRY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES INTO COLORADO FRIDAY SPREADING PCPN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. EXACT TRACK LOW HAS
YET TO BE RESOLVED BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A DRY SLOT TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. COOLER AIR DROPS IN BEHIND THIS
WEEKEND LOW BUT 850MB TEMPS DO REMAIN POSITIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z. AFTER THAT THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH KLNK POSSIBLY
SEEING SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA AS SOON AS 12Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH THROUGH
NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND
A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...FOBERT



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