Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 200915
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
315 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Mixed precip across the area early this morning is expected to be
winding down and ending between 12Z and 16Z as main instability
and forcing shifts east. Will continue advisory through the mid
morning expiration for now.

Surface high builds into eastern Nebraska this afternoon and
tonight helping to dry things out for a bit before moving east
into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Main forecast concern
for late Wednesday into Thursday will be timing of energy ejecting
from persistent western trough and overrunning warm advection and
moisture from stalled frontal boundary over the southern plains.
Models show similar solution in bringing increasing PoPs into
southern parts of the forecast area by Wednesday evening then
spreading it north into Thursday. Thermal profiles would suggest a
continued likelyhood of mixed precip for most of the area with
mainly snow in the northwest. Amounts look to be on the lower end
and due to uncertainty in placement no headlines at this point.
Daytime temperatures do moderate in the south for Wednesday and
Thursday as highs reach at or above freezing by Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Extended period will continue see additional energy coming out of
the western trough and a chance of more precipitation late Friday
into Saturday with another round of mixed precip likely. Temperatures
however are forecast to warm above freezing in the south during
the day both Friday and Saturday so rain is likely there in the
afternoon on Saturday with a mix in the north. Sunday and Monday
are dry for now but some uncertainty due to model solutions in
handling of the upper waves during that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Thunderstorms producing a wintry mix of precipitation will affect
the KLNK and KOMA TAF sites for several hours early in the period,
with Sleet, Freezing Rain, Freezing Drizzle and Snow all possible.
When snowing, vsbys will drop to LIFR at time, while mainly IFR
vsbys are forecast when heaviest rain or sleet showers are
overhead. Outside of showers of sleet/freezing rain/snow, freezing
drizzle will be predominant type, with MVFR vsbys expected. Cigs
will remain below FL010 through 15Z with gradual improvement to
VFR by 00Z. KOFK will remain generally all snow, with IFR to LIFR
cigs and vsbys through 15Z before a gradually improvement there.
North to northwest winds of 15 to 25kt are expected through 00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NEZ011-
     012-015>018-031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Dergan


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