Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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031
FXUS63 KOAX 301758
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MORNING UPDATES HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST POPS AS THE MAIN AXIS OF RAIN
HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTH WITH MAINLY DRIZZLE AND FOG LEFT BEHIND.
THERE IS SOME H7 WAA THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THIS...SO HAVE LEFT SOME POPS IN. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO NEAR
60 AT FALLS CITY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE CONTINUATION OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ENDING PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY POINTS OF THIS FORECAST.

MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.
LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE WAS IMPLIED ON SATELLITE LOOPS ARCING AROUND
THE LOW FROM ARKANSAS INTO MISSOURI THEN NORTHWEST AND WEST ACROSS
IOWA AND NEBRASKA...COINCIDENT WITH BROAD DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW.
MID LEVEL DRYING WAS NOTED FROM KANSAS SOUTH...WHICH WILL SPREAD
NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING...DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES AND COVERAGE THERE.

LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHEAST THEN EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT. TROWAL/DEFORMATION REGION IN
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST QUADRANTS OF THE LOW WILL CONTAIN
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
THAT AREA ROTATING NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY TODAY
AS LOW MOVES EAST...THEN SINK BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PULLS
EAST THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT. OUR CURRENT FORECAST
ADVERTISES THIS TREND NICELY...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED.  ONE ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE DAY AS DRY SLOT
REGION INVADES THOSE AREAS. WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
POP UP THIS AFTERNOON UNDER COOLING ALOFT AS LOW APPROACHES.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TO NEAR 0.75 INCH TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BELOW A HALF INCH
ON SUNDAY. SO EXPECT RAIN AMOUNTS TO GENERALLY TOP OUT AROUND AN
INCH IN MANY SPOTS OVER OUR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 12Z SATURDAY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BUT SOME LOCAL AREAS COULD CERTAINLY SEE MORE.

LOW THEN WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AS IT IS ENVELOPED INTO BROADER TROUGH IN
THE GREAT LAKES...TAKING LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHAT IS LEFT BEHIND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK IS GENERALLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE PLAINS ATTENDANT
TO GREAT LAKES TROUGH. SOME MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP THROUGH THAT FLOW WHICH COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM MORNING READINGS
TODAY GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD
SNEAK OUT A FEW MORE DEGREES WHERE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL NOT
BE AS GREAT. SAME SMALL DIURNAL CHANGE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH A
LITTLE BETTER WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY WHEN SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER AND LOSS OF PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE
INSOLATION. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE 60S WITH LOTS MORE
SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAINLY DRY AND WARMER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN IS STILL ADVERTISED BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
RIDGE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS FIRMLY TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME WITH
WEAK IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE AREA...BUT CHANCES ARE FAR TOO
SLIM TO MENTION WITH ANY CONVICTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY
REACH THE 70S EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND COULD GET EVEN
WARMER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE BULK OF THE
STEADIER RAIN IS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...5 TO 15KTS AT KOMA AND KLNK
AND 10 TO 20KTS AT KOFK. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AT KLNK THE
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL
WILL WORK INTO TO ALL THE TAF SITES AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20KTS
AND GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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