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000
FXUS64 KJAN 232000
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
300 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Tonight through early next week (Monday)...

Tonight-late week (Friday): A quiet night is expected across the
region. Broad upper low centered across the Great Lakes to north
near the Hudson Bay region is progged to sink southeast into the
Mid Atlantic region by midweek. Some uptick in low-level moisture,
with still efficient radiational cooling overnight, will lead to
some river valley fog & psbl areas to dense fog. Added some river
valley fog potential but confidence in addition to HWO graphics is
too low to add at this time. This pattern will keep northwesterly
flow situated around the area, but as low-level/sfc high pressure
ridge build east, some uptick in moist ascent will occur. PWs
will climb to near climatological norms, with a weak frontal zone
diving down into Wednesday, bringing a few showers or isolated
storm psbl. Confidence in storm coverage isn`t that high. Expect
warm advection & moisture advection to pick up through the end of
the workweek, with best ascent from shortwave expected around
Thursday, where more scattered showers & some storms are psbl.
Expect moderation of temperatures, with highs near seasonable in
the upper 70s north of I-20 to low 80s to the south to seasonably
warm in the low-mid 80s by late week. Lows will be seasonably cool
tonight southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor in the low-mid 50s
while seasonable to the northwest in the upper 50s. As warm
advection picks up, highs will seasonable in the upper 50s east of
I-55 to low-mid 60s to west, especially by late week. With a
developing low pressure system in the Plains by late week,
gradient winds will be on the uptick.

This weekend-early next week (Saturday-next Monday): As H5 ridge
builds to nearly 590DM over the Gulf of Mexico, this will help
amplify the longwave pattern, with deep mean troughing for areas
west of the MS River Valley. A strong cold core low/jet energy is
expected to eject late week into early weekend out of the High
Plains into the Great Lakes & another strong spoke of energy/cold
core trough axis digging across the southwestern CONUS. Each are
expected to help strong lee side sfc low/deepening cyclogenesis
to occur across the Plains, with strong tight gradient across the
Gulf Coast states. The most likely time of breakdown of the
ridging & skirting of these frontal disturbances look to be late
weekend into early next week, when the best rain & storm chances
pick up across the area. There could be enough juxtaposition of
right entrance region/jet dynamics, mean bulk shear around
25-30kts & steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5 deg C/km &
vertical totals near 27-29 deg C could support some severe
weather potential. Can`t rule out something trying to sink into
the area late Sunday night but highest probs of some severe
potential, per CSU machine learning probs, look to be early next
week. Right now confidence is too low to put anything in the
HWO graphics. Expect seasonably warm conditions, some +5 deg F
above normal, in the mid 80s, while cooler by early next week,
with lows well above climatology, some +10-15 deg F above normal,
in the low 60s east of I-55 to mid-upper 60s along & west of the
I-55 corridor. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some aftn sfc
winds could reach 15-20mph, especially near GLH, with brief higher
gusts. Patchy BR or FG may develop near KHBG/KPIB around 24/09-12Z
Wednesday & cause MVFR or lower conditions. Can`t rule out brief
lowering to MVFR cigs near GLH or GWO around daybreak Wednesday.
Winds turn more west-northwest into Wednesday aftn. Weak front
could bring an isolated SHRA or TSRA to TAF sites north of I-20
Wednesday but confidence is too low to introduce in the 18Z TAF
cycle. /NF/DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       55  79  60  82 /   0  10   0  10
Meridian      52  81  58  83 /   0  10   0  20
Vicksburg     56  80  61  84 /   0  10   0  10
Hattiesburg   52  83  58  85 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       54  81  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
Greenville    60  76  63  80 /   0  20  20  30
Greenwood     58  76  60  79 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC