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000
FXUS63 KLMK 192310
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
710 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Much cooler weather this weekend. Next chance of rain arrives in
    the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Mid-afternoon satellite imagery shows clearing skies progressing
southward into northern parts of Kentucky along the Ohio River with
much of southern Indiana experiencing mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures across the region are holding in the mid 50s across the
central part of the state where clouds were the thickest.  Where
skies have cleared across northern and northwest KY, temperatures
have warmed into the upper 50s and lower 60s.  For the remainder of
the afternoon hours, clearing looks to progress southward through
the remainder of the state.  Once the sun comes out, we`ll have some
insolation that may be able to  warm temps in the I-65 corridor into
the upper 50s to near 60 prior to sunset.  Across southern KY,
mostly cloudy skies are expected to continue into this evening.

For tonight, clearing skies are expected to continue to work
southward.  While the low-levels should eventually clear out, some
higher cirrus may overspread the area late tonight.  Lows will dip
into the lower 40s across southern Indiana and much of Kentucky.
South of the Cumberland Parkway, temps may only dip into the mid 40s
for lows.

For Saturday, dry and tranquil conditions are expected for the
region.  Temperatures though will run about 5-11 degrees below
normal for mid-late April.  Highs across southern IN and in KY north
of the Parkways should top out in the 58-62 degree range with 60-65
degree readings south of the Parkways.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Dry and cooler than normal weather will be in place from Sunday into
the start of the week. Upper trough pattern over eastern Canada into
the northeast US and Great Lakes will keep us cool while a strong
and large area of sfc high pressure works in from the west over the
Ohio Valley. Even with a near zonal flow aloft, there will be
reinforcing shot of cooler air thanks to a shortwave trough working
across the region late Sunday into Monday morning. With 850mb temps
0 to -1 Monday morning and clear skies, there is the possibility of
some frost as low dip into the mid/upper 30s. With high pressure off
to our west and sfc wind out of the north around 5 mph, it may be
enough to minimize frost development. The areas that have the
highest probability would be around the Bluegrass and any locations
sheltered from the wind. Highs on Sunday will struggle to reach 60
for many locations while Monday will have low/mid 60s for highs.

Upper ridging will briefly set up behind the departing shortwave on
Monday into Tuesday. Sfc high will work westward off the eastern
shores of VA allowing for winds to become southerly and all for
increased moisture return. A stronger shortwave and associated sfc
low will work out of central Canada and into the Dakotas and Upper
Midwest Monday night and work across the Great Lakes during the day
Tuesday. This will drag a sfc cold front into the Ohio Valley by
late Tuesday into Tuesday night. With increased moisture and
favorable upper dynamics, this is our best chance for precipitation
in long term with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Even
with an increase in moisture, instability is very low but there will
be a modest amount of shear. While the deterministic continue to
show temporal discrepancies with the GFS still a bit faster than
the EURO, the latest 12z seems to be coming more in line with the
last few runs of the GFS. With that in mind, kept the NBM forecast
which has our best chance for precipitation Tuesday night and ending
by Wednesday morning. High ahead of the front will warm closer
normal which is in the low 70s.

Northwest flow aloft and building sfc high from the north behind the
departing cold front will bring a return of the mainly dry and below
normal temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the
mid/upper 60s. Rain chances will start to increase for the end of
the week and into the weekend as a series of storm systems work out
of the Great Plains and into the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Stratus is slowly clearing out of the region as drier air moves in
from the northwest. Most TAF sites will start out VFR, with the
exception of RGA which may see some brief MVFR cigs before lifting
to VFR. Higher level/cirrus clouds will stream in from the west so
skies won`t be completely clear overnight but should have no impacts
to aviation.

Winds will go light overnight but pick back up again during the late
morning to early afternoon hours. Some gusts near 20kts out of the
WNW will be possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...DM