082
FXUS64 KLUB 061107
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
607 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The leading edge of height falls was already overspreading our area
early this morning ahead of a potent upper low becoming negatively
tilted over the Four Corners. Although the dryline is situated well
to our west along the Sacramento Range, the increased upper ascent
will be too little to overcome an exceptional cap advecting our way.
So despite PWATs currently around 150% of normal, none of this
moisture will be wrung out today as the dryline sweeps off the
Caprock later this morning before ultimately stalling near or just
beyond our eastern column of counties by mid-afternoon. There is a
slim chance (<10%) that the dryline convects this afternoon near
Childress even though this area lies south of the upper jet axis
where broad subsidence tends to hinder deep convection. On a related
note, the majority of CAMs and coarser resolution models depict
today`s supercells unfolding along and north of this upper jet axis
across west central and northwest Oklahoma. Otherwise, strong
heating within the LL thermal ridge may be enough to temporarily
breach the cap in the far southeast Texas Panhandle, but any storms
here should quickly exit our area within 35+ knots of steering flow.
By late afternoon, a Pacific front will glide E-SE across our
northwest zones before sweeping out of the Rolling Plains after
midnight ahead of lighter breezes and much cooler lows in the 40s
and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Cyclonic flow aloft will continue through mid-week stemming from a
nearly stationary closed upper low over the Northern Plains. This
will continue to promote warm, dry, and breezy conditions for the
area on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Tuesday will already begin
the day with the dryline well east of the area. Additional surface
cyclone development will occur in lee of the Rockies on Tuesday in
southeastern Colorado. The increase in the surface pressure gradient
will be the primary driver for increased winds. Jet streaks aloft
will reside north of the area roughly along the 37th parallel.
Westerly downsloping winds will boost temperatures well above
seasonal averages. Wednesday becomes a little trickier with the
surface wind forecast as a cold front attempts to backdoor into
the area. Models are in a rough agreement in hanging this front up
in the southern Texas Panhandle which would keep much of the
region within the breezy westerly low level flow and therefore
continued warmth. The stationary front will then push through the
area Wednesday night into Thursday morning bringing in cooler
temperatures for the rest of the week. After some short wave
ridging aloft to end the work week, models are depicting a trough
in some form next weekend bringing precipitation chances back to
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

MVFR stratus is quickly eroding across eastern NM as the dryline
begins to shove east. This clearing is on track to reach LBB and
PVW around 15Z, and CDS by noon ahead of 20-25 knot westerly
winds. A weak FROPA and NW wind shift this evening may dial
surface winds low enough for LLWS at all terminals after midnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Critical fire weather is likely this afternoon and evening over
the northern South Plains and far southwest TX Panhandle where the
breeziest west winds of 25 to 30 mph overlap with very low RH
values in the single digits. ERCs here remain near or below
normal which should suppress the severity of fire spread.

Elevated to critical fire weather can again be expected on
Tuesday afternoon. Relative humidity recovery will be non-
existent on Tuesday morning. A strong low pressure system in
southeast Colorado will allow southwest winds to increase across
West Texas with greatest values on the caprock. Winds at the 20
foot level are generally expected to be between 20 and 25 mph on
Tuesday afternoon. Very warm temperatures will continue allowing
for afternoon relative humidity values to drop into the single
digits on the caprock.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ021>023-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93