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000
FXUS63 KOAX 231935
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
235 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EASTWARD OVERNIGHT GIVING US QUIET WEATHER AND EAST
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD
TRIGGER CONVECTION TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS....WHICH WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...
AND JUST A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE REGION. GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS...A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR. THIS FIRST IMPULSESEEMS
TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET COULD STILL PROVIDE SUPPORT
FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST DETAILS BECOME LESS CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT COULD
LEAVE BEHIND A FEW BOUNDARIES...WHICH COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR NEW
CONVECTION SATURDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. INSTABILITY DEFINITELY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIME...AND WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR...SEEMS
THERE COULD BE A SEVERE THREAT THIS DAY AS WELL.

THE REGION WILL ALSO REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE FROM SATURDAY
AND BEYOND...WHICH PUTS IN THE WELL WITHIN THE AREA OF PRIME
ACTION AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
IMPULSE CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH AND
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS. BY THIS TIME...THE
DETAILS OF ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...OTHER THAN THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN. NOT TO SAY THAT IT WILL BE CONTINUOUS RAIN...BUT GIVEN
THAT IT`S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THERE WILL BE MANY MORE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THAN NORMAL...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN JUST
ABOUT EVERY 12 HOUR PERIOD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR LATER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE RIDGE AXIS DOES SHIFT EASTWARD JUST A BIT...BUT STILL
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

DEWALD

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

CLEARING IS FINALLY TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH KLNK
THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT BUT THIS SHOULD BE WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OF
THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
TAF CYCLE AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THAT QUITE YET.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$