922
FXUS64 KCRP 072335
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
635 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The temperature inversion will become quite shallow overnight as
subsident southwesterly low level flow develops off the Sierra
Madre Mts in Mexico and spreads over South Texas. The inversion
will trap moisture in the boundary layer where overcast conditions
are expected to persist tonight with ceilings transitioning to
IFR and then LIFR late. Some patchy fog is also possible.
Adiabatic mixing of the subsident airmass on Wednesday will
result in hot temperatures across much of the region with highs
ranging from near 90 in VCT, to upper 90s in Corpus Christi, and
around 106 in Laredo. Combined with the humidity and the heat
index will reach dangerous levels in excess of 110 degrees over
portions of the Southern Coastal Bend. Thus we have issued a Heat
Advisory for Nueces, Jim Wells and Kleberg Counties from 18z-00z
Wed. Heat Indices of 105 to 109 can be expected over the remainder
of the area. The rather light winds will not offer much relief
from the heat, so our message is to drink plenty of fluids, stay
in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on
relatives and neighbors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Key Messages:

 Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts with near record
high temperatures Thursday

 Weak cold front early Friday morning

 Low (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday,
increasing to a low to moderate (30-40%) chance Sunday and Monday

Near record high temperatures are expected Thursday as near
climatological max 850mb temperatures mix down and cause a moderate
to major heat risk across South Texas. Laredo`s record high is 108
back in 2011 forecast to reach 107 and Corpus Christi`s record high
is 100 back in 1998 forecast to reach 98. Heat index values are
expected to reach the triple digits across all of South Texas with a
medium chance of at least 110 over Nueces and Kleberg counties. A
Heat Advisory may be needed as this level of heat affects most
individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective
cooling.

Thankfully, a weak cold front will pass through the area overnight
Thursday night into early Friday morning, resulting in relief from
the dangerous heat with highs and feels-like temperatures in the
upper 80s to around 90. In addition, isentropic lift with weak
condensation deficits combined with well above normal moisture
(PWATs ~ 1.75") will lead to a low (20%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

The boundary will retreat northwestward as a warm front Saturday
afternoon into evening. Another mid-level trough will progress
eastward across the Great Plains early next week and act as a
reinforcing surge of high pressure, pushing the front back into
South Texas and meander Sunday evening into Monday. There are model
discrepancies with the mid-level flow, resulting in low confidence
with the position of the front. Either way, the close proximity to
the front and even higher moisture (99th percentile with PWATs near
2.0") will lead to a better (30-40%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. On the bright side, there is a less
than 10% chance of temperatures reaching 90 degrees east of Duval
County this weekend!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR ceilings are currently in place across all terminals, with
some MVFR visibilities hanging around ALI. IFR ceilings and
visibilities will creep in by the early overnight hours, with
TEMPO LIFR ceilings possible in our eastern terminals shortly
before daybreak (between 09-13Z). These lower ceilings and
visibilities should lift to become MVFR by late tomorrow morning.
Expecting to see VFR ceilings out west once again tomorrow
afternoon, as winds shift to become northwesterly.


&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore winds can be expected Tonight through
Thursday night. A cold front will move off the coast early Friday
morning. Winds will shift to the northeast and strengthen to
moderate levels Friday and Saturday. Winds become easterly on
Sunday. There is a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday, increasing to a medium 30 to 40 percent chance Sunday
through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  95  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          75  91  75  93 /   0   0   0  10
Laredo            77 106  77 107 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             74 101  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          77  87  77  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           77 104  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        75  99  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       78  89  78  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ241>243.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...KRS/98