430
FXUS64 KEPZ 112337
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
537 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Dry conditions return this evening under breezy west winds. Fire
danger will be the primary weather concern again this week.
Seasonal temperatures with lighter winds midweek, along with
slight chances of showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain
in central New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Moisture boundary sits across eastern Otero/Hudspeth Counties this
afternoon, with convective activity occurring along the fringes
of our CWA. Upper low over the Central Rockies reinforcing
southwesterly flow will push this moisture off to the east and out
of the local forecast area this evening, with a very weak return
flow overnight. We`ll see a few gusts to 30-35 mph this evening,
subsiding overnight.

We`re back to the prevailing pattern of dry, west flow on Sunday.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler, right near normal for mid-May
with lowland highs in the mid 80s. The main weather concern going
forward will be fire danger, but not expecting any headlines as
winds decrease under a weak ridge aloft. Tuesday looks to be the
warmest day of the week right now, with a high of 93 at El Paso.

Weak Pacific low will approach the region midweek, with current
ensemble trajectories showing confidence in a track along the
International Border. Marginal moisture return from the north may
occur with this, allowing for some low-end thunderstorm and rain
shower chances over Central New Mexico and the National Forests.
Precipitation chances remain quite low for the El Paso metro
through late May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. East of
Mescalero-Sierra Blanca line...SCT-BKN080TCU with isold -SHRA/-TSRA
until 02Z. Surface winds west/southwest 12-17G27 knots until 03Z
then diminishing to west/northwest 7-10 knots. After 18Z winds
becoming west 13-17G27 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

West flow 15 to 25 mph on Sunday combined with min RH 6-12%,
leading to Elevated fire danger. No fire headlines expected at
this time as winds remain just below critical thresholds.
Excellent smoke ventilation beginning after 12PM, with transport
due east.

Lighter afternoon winds Monday and Tuesday as temperatures warm
under high pressure aloft. Ventilation remains Very Good due to
high mixing heights. Slight chance of thunder over the New Mexico
forests on Thursday, which poses a threat of dry lightning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  60  86  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  80  55  83 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces               53  85  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               50  82  52  84 /  10   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               38  58  39  61 /  10   0   0  20
Truth or Consequences    51  83  55  84 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City              44  74  49  78 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                   48  83  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                48  81  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       57  83  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                51  85  50  87 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             53  87  54  90 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               53  77  54  81 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   55  86  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             50  82  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           58  83  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            48  83  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    47  85  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 53  83  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                52  81  53  84 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  42  70  43  72 /  10   0   0  10
Mescalero                40  69  42  72 /  10   0   0  20
Timberon                 41  68  42  71 /  10   0   0  10
Winston                  41  74  46  76 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro                46  81  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                45  82  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             39  75  43  78 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   42  77  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    45  81  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               45  77  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  45  77  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   48  81  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  48  81  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           48  81  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               49  76  50  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner