Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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518 FXUS63 KFGF 142337 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 637 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - On and off showers through at least the next week. - Thunderstorm chances increasing over the next few days. A low probability scenario exists which would include a few strong thunderstorms on Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Activity on radar continue to be mainly associated with sprinkles (non measurable rain) or virga, due to a dry 8-10 KFT dry layer below this mid level CU deck. HRRR still shows a signal for scattered showers/iso-T developing to the west this evening near the surface trough axis/instabilty gradient and spreading east towards the Devils Lake Basin before weakening/falling apart. There are a few showers within a CU field along that axis but no lightning activity. If it did occur impacts would be limited to just lightning activity as much more stable air is in place this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery indicates zonal flow aloft with several upstream shortwaves meandering toward the region. Ensemble guidance in good agreement with the general zonal flow pattern, but differ with timing, strength, and location of individual shortwaves. All in all anticipate on and off showers through at least the next week with possibly a stronger thunderstorm. Through the next week, the 25-75 percentile range for rainfall amounts across the majority of the forecast area is 0.50-1.50 inches. ...On and Off Showers... Water vapor indicates immediate subsidence through the late afternoon behind the departing wave, but many more waves approaching. HRRR indicates a few storms initiating across north central ND this afternoon moving into the Devils Lake basin this evening. This scenario seems plausible given the current plume of instabilty ahead of the surface convergence/low pressure. Any storms that do develop would quickly dissipate this evening as they depart from the instability. Next wave of concern is currently across Idaho, with another lead wave across southwest South Dakota. Ensemble guidance in good agreement indicating these features will slowly propagate through the region on Wednesday, with rain chance increasing especially Wednesday afternoon and into the evening. Beyond Wednesday, timing and location of waves uncertain. ...Severe Storm Potential... There is a stronger wave that will be approaching from the northwest by Friday, and ensemble guidance shows many different scenarios with how this system will develop across southern Canada. Location of this feature by Friday into Saturday will be important, as stronger and further west would lead to increased moisture return along with warmer temperatures and greater instability, with the potential for strong to severe storms. In fact, the CU machine learning indicates a low chance for severe storms Friday and Saturday. Of course, a weaker and further east system would not allow for moisture return or warmer temperatures thus limiting instabilty. At this point each scenario has an equal chance of happening. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through the evening and early morning hours across eastern ND and northwest MN, with virga and a few sprinkles (minimum coverage/impacts). There is a signal for actual showers or maybe a thunderstorm late this evening in the vicinity of KDVL (thunder chances much lower than shower chances). Better rain chances overspread most TAF sites in eastern ND and northwest MN Wednesday southwest to northeast, along with decreasing ceilings to MVFR (some IFR near KDVL). Winds will tend to remain east or southeast until low pressure pushes into northeast ND late Wednesday afternoon (north- northwest winds arrive at DVL on back side of surface low). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...TG AVIATION...DJR