645
FXUS64 KOHX 031741
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1241 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

There are just so many ways one can state that an unsettled
weather pattern will persist through this entire forecast period.
Looking at the short term part, maybe some breaks in potential
rounds of showers and storms, earlier this afternoon and across
locations around and west of I-65 corridor on Saturday afternoon.
Yes, a few strong storms may be possible at times, but really not
expecting any organized severe storm potential. Lows tonight will be
seasonably mild in low to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will also be
above seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s
higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Looking into a little bit more detail here, mid state will remain
in the warm sector of synoptic surface frontal systems to our west
and north with prevalence of southwesterly flow aloft and
potentially more upper level disturbance passages than one can
count embedded within this flow aiding in these rounds of convective
developments. Just like in the short term, some strong storms may be
possible at times, but all in all, really not expecting any
organized severe storm potential at this time. The only exception to
this is the hinting by SPC in its latest Day Five Outlook of strong
convection being possible near Land of the Lakes Region on Tuesday.
Temperatures will continue to be seasonably warm. As for all these
rounds of showers and storms expected, total rainfall amounts this
afternoon through Friday afternoon are expected to generally range
2.5" to 3.5."

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
this afternoon and evening, and possibly into the overnight hours
especially for KSRB and KCSV. Timing the best chance at seeing
rainfall for each terminal using latest CAM guidance, but chances
for -TSRA will remain possible through the afternoon and evening
which will bring MVFR/IFR cigs and vis to impacted terminals.
Southerly winds around 5 to 10 knots will become light overnight,
and pick up again during the morning Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  82  65  85 /  50  70  50  70
Clarksville    63  80  64  82 /  50  50  40  70
Crossville     61  74  60  78 /  50  80  50  80
Columbia       63  80  64  84 /  60  70  50  80
Cookeville     63  76  62  80 /  50  80  50  80
Jamestown      61  76  60  80 /  50  80  50  80
Lawrenceburg   63  79  63  82 /  60  50  50  80
Murfreesboro   64  79  63  84 /  40  70  50  80
Waverly        63  80  63  82 /  60  50  50  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Barnwell