855
FXUS61 KALY 200532
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
132 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Building high pressure will bring dry weather, clearing skies,
and a warming trend through midweek with hot temperatures
possible Tuesday and Wednesday. An approaching cold front will
see chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region late
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.Update...As of 1:30 AM EDT...Still seeing some patchy low
stratus across portions of the Hudson Valley, southern VT, and
the eastern Mohawk Valley which kept temperatures on the warm
side (50s to 60s currently), especially where winds have
remained light. Areas further south that are clear and calm have
already seen temperatures drop into the upper 40s to low 50s.
Also monitoring low stratus in central New England that should
continue to expand westwards through the night and may make it
into our western New England zones prior to sunrise. Patchy fog
remains possible for areas that see clear skies and light to
calm winds through the rest of the night. Overall just minor
adjustments with this update as previous forecast remains in
good shape...

Previous discussion...Temperatures will remain mild overnight, falling
to lows in the upper 40s to low 50s in western New England, and
low to mid 50s across eastern New York. Beneath clearing skies,
efficient radiative cooling may yield areas of valley fog and
mist overnight. Continued stratus cloud coverage over eastern
New England may reach west into the Greens, Berkshires, and
Litchfield Hills, thereby reducing the chances for fog. Guidance
suggests winds may stay elevated in some north to south valley
areas enough that fog stays patchy. Fog coverage should peak by
08 - 11 UTC before the strong May sun kicks in and burns it off
shortly after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Broad upper ridging in place over much of the country east of
the Rockies will see temperatures continue to trend hotter,
coming within a few degrees of daily records on Tuesday (see
Climate section below for details on record values). Southerly
to southwesterly low-level flow and 850-hPa temperatures rising
to 10-15C on Monday will see highs at the surface reach the mid
to upper 70s in high terrain, and low to mid 80s at lower
elevations. Dry weather is expected beneath mostly sunny skies
with scattered fair weather clouds. Mild temperatures continue
Monday night, with overnight lows in the 50s across the region.

On Tuesday, with nearly zonal flow aloft atop the upper ridge, a
potent upper shortwave and associated surface low will track to
the north of the region across Ontario and Quebec. While 850-hPa
temperatures reach 14-18C overhead, highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s in high terrain, and mid 80s to around 90 at lower
elevations are expected, while surface dewpoints in the low to
mid 60s may make it feel a bit muggy. With the shortwave passing
to the north and a relatively hot and humid airmass in place,
scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms may reach into the
southern Adirondacks, as well as the Mohawk and Upper Hudson
Valleys. Any storms will dissipate through the evening following
the loss of diurnal heating, leaving a mild and muggy night as
temperatures only fall to lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging over our region Wednesday as upper energy and an
associated cold front will approach our region. A pre frontal low
level trough may be a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon in the western Mohawk Valley and southern
Adirondacks. Highs Wednesday in the 80s to around 90 with heat
indices similar to the actual temperatures because the relative
humidity is not expected to be extreme.

There are still some uncertainties about the timing and track of the
upper energy just north of the U.S./Canada border and the associated
cold front as it tracks east. The general consensus is for the
leading low level thermal gradient and moisture gradient along the
cold front to track through much of our region late Wednesday night
and Thursday morning. Then the final push of the cold front settles
east and south, through the Schoharie Valley, eastern Catskills, mid
Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshires Thursday afternoon.

Instability ahead of the low level cold front is expected to be
considerable, with a potential elevated mixed layer and steep
midlevel lapse rates. The deep shear will also be considerable.
However, there are signals that the best instability and shear do
not overlap, with the best shear along and north of the U.S./Canada
border, and best instability over the southern half of NY and New
England.

So, some components for severe weather will be present but if they
do not overlap, and if the timing is at night or morning, when
instability is the least, then less chances for severe weather.
There is still time to watch this for severe potential. Still,
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday
as the cold front tracks through. Highs Thursday in the lower to mid
80s with 70s higher terrain.

Drying and clearing Friday with highs in the 70s, and some 60s
higher elevations. Remaining dry Saturday with highs in the mid to
upper 70s and around 70 higher elevations.

Lots of uncertainty in the timing and track of other upper energy
approaching our region toward Sunday. So, indicating just general
intervals of clouds and sun with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Highs Sunday in the mid to upper 70s and around 70
higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06z/Tue...High pressure will bring dry weather and VFR
conditions for much of the upcoming TAF period. The exception will
be whether any fog develops at any of the TAF sites for the
remainder of the overnight. Some mid-level clouds are also around
keeping dewpoint depressions a bit elevated. Will continue with a
TEMPO group at KGFL/KPSF/KPOU for possible vsby reductions to
IFR/MVFR. Fog is less likely at KALB due to a light southeasterly
wind in place as well as some patchy mid-level clouds.

Wind will be south to southeasterly for much of the upcoming TAF
period at 5 kt or less.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperature for May 20:

Albany: 91 in 1962
Glens Falls: 90 in 1975
Poughkeepsie: 91 in 1975

Record High Temperature for May 21:

Albany: 92 in 1941
Glens Falls: 93 in 1921
Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996

Record High Temperature for May 22:

Albany: 97 in 1911
Glens Falls: 98 in 1911
Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Main/Picard/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Rathbun
CLIMATE...Speciale