Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
472 FXXX12 KWNP 130031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 13 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3664 (S19W75,Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1.0/1f flare (R3/Strong) at 12/1626 UTC, the strongest of the period. The region remained the most complex and active on the disk. Growth was observed in Regions 3675 (S14W43, Dai/beta) and 3676 (S22E09, Dai/beta), and new Regions 3677 (S02W38, Axx/alpha), 3678 (N08E65, Hsx/alpha), and 3679 (S09E73, Hsx/alpha) were numbered, but were otherwise unremarkable. The other numbered active regions were either stable or in decay. Other activity included a CME first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 12/0148 UTC off the SE, which appears to be related to nearly simultaneous eruptions from Regions 3673 and 3676 early in the period. This CME is likely to result in a glancing blow arrival late on 14, early on 15 May. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at high levels over 13-14 May, with M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and X-class flares (R3/Strong) expected, due to the flare potential of Region 3664. Solar activity is expected to be low on 15 May with a slight chance for M-class flares as Region 3664 is expected to fully transit the W limb and no longer pose a significant flare threat. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 10/1335 UTC and reached a peak flux of 207 pfu at 10/1745 UTC, ended at 12/1235 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 11/0210 and reached a peak flux of 7 pfu at 11/0715 UTC, ended at 12/0030 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels throughout the day. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain elevated over 13 May with additional proton enhancements at S1 (Minor) storm levels likely over 13-14 May due to the flare potential and location of Region 3664. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 13 May, and is likely to increase to high levels on 14-15 May following a prolonged period of elevated geomagnetic activity and enhanced solar wind conditions. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of weakening CME influences from all the preceding transients. However, conditions remained highly agitated with solar wind speed decreasing only slightly from near 1000 km/s to 800 km/s before escalating again to 900 km/s. Total field strength had decreased to 5 nT with a northward directed Bz component until just before 12/0900 UTC, when the field abruptly strengthened to 12 nT. It was uncertain, but increasingly probable, that this enhancement may have been the flanking edge shock arrival of the speedy CME that departed the Sun early 11 May. After the shock arrival, the Bz component became variable and reached a maximum deflection of -9 nT. The phi angle was mostly positive, but became variable later. .Forecast... An enhanced solar wind environment with CME influences is expected to continue on 13 May. Solar wind parameters are expected to wane on 14 May with weak CH HSS influences becoming likely. Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to return by 14 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels early in the UTC-day due to continued CME activity. After periods of unsettled to active levels, responses increased to G2 (Moderate) levels late in the reporting period. .Forecast... Periods of G2-G3 (Moderate-Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 13 May due to anticipated CME passages from multiple eruptive events originating from Region 3664, in addition to weak CH HSS influences. Active conditions and G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 14 May due to weak CH HSS influences and the possible glancing blow arrival of a CME from 12 May. Unsettled and active levels are expected on 15 May with continued CH HSS influences and possible waning CME influences.