000
FXXX12 KWNP 280031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate (R1-Minor) levels as Region 3654
(S08W23, Esi/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive M3.0 flare at 27/2140
UTC. The region also produced C-class activity. It remains the largest
region on the disk and exhibited moderate development in the
intermediate and trailer spots. Region 3648 (N18W85, Cao/beta) produced
a C4.9/Sf at 27/1628 UTC as it approached the WNW limb. Region 3657
(S15W32, Bxo/beta) reemerged with a few rudimentary spots and new Region
3660 (N10E62, Hsx/alpha) was numbered. The remaining regions were either
stable or in decay.

At about 27/1100 UTC, SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery contained a faint,
slow-moving CME off the SW limb. This CME signature is suspected to have
originated in the vicinity of Region 3654 when some westward moving
enhancements were detected at about 27/0900 UTC. Analysis and modeling
suggested a possible Earth-directed component could affect Earth
mid-to-late on 01 May. Further analysis is ongoing. No other
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 28-30 Apr with a
chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over 28-30 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to persist at background levels over 28-30 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was enhanced due to possible CME influence
early in the period, followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS
influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 16 nT and the Bz
component was varied between +/-10 nT. Solar wind speeds were steady
from 300-350 km/s until 27/0230 UTC, when speed values slowly increased
to a period high of around 550 km/s. The phi angle was in a mostly
positive orientation through the period.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 28-30 Apr due to CH HSS
influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs
that are expected to pass in close proximity to Earth over the next few
days.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
levels on 28 Apr, and quiet to unsettled levels on 29-30 Apr, due to the
anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient
influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A
chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods exists on 28 Apr should these
features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz.