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616
FXUS61 KOKX 132039
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
439 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will pass to the northeast tonight as high pressure
remains stationary just offshore. The high will weaken and move
farther out into the Atlantic late Tuesday into Tuesday night
as a broad area of low pressure begins to approach from the mid
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The low will consolidate into one
area of low pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast by Wednesday
night, then slowly passes to the south on Thursday. Weak high
pressure builds into the area Thursday night into Friday. Another
frontal system and wave of low pressure should impact the area
over the weekend, followed by high pressure early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Mid level shortwave trough riding through a weak upper ridge
over the eastern states has brought a return of clouds to areas
form the NYC metro area north/west, also a few sprinkles. Have
20 PoP for the possibility of these sprinkles or light showers
north of NYC and across southern CT into this evening. Skies
should clear later on tonight after this feature passes.

Temps were held down in the 60s today from NYC north/west due
to persistent cloud cover. Lows tonight should range from the
mid 50s in/around NYC, to the upper 40s/lower 50s elsewhere.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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A sfc high just offshore and sfc ridging aloft will pass slowly
east on Tue. After some morning sunshine clouds should
increase in the afternoon via WAA aloft in SW flow ahead of the
broad low approaching from the west, with chance of late day
showers well to the west of NYC. PoP increases Tue night to
likely/categorical NW of NYC Tue night and to chance across all
but eastern Long Island and SE CT. Can`t totally rule out an
isolated tstm but have not mentioned in the fcst attm. Rainfall
amts during this time frame should remain light, with no more
than 2-4 tenths of an inch NW of NYC, and even this could be
generous as latest NAM/GFS are drier than the NBM.

High temps on Tue, with SW low level flow and ridging aloft,
should be warmer than those of Monday, with highs 70-75 away
from the coast and in the 60s near most south facing shorelines.
Lows in the 50s expected for Tue night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A southern branch upper low being tugged on by another in the
northern branch gets left behind in the vicinity of the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. Guidance varies a bit on its
placement and with the resulting surface low that consolidates
off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday night. The NAM is the most
northern solution of the 12Z guidance, while most are east of
the Delmarva. This difference could very well make for a big
difference in how much rain the area can expect. Overall, there
is clearly a southward shift in the guidance and both rain
chances and rainfall amounts have been backed down some.
Ensembles are generally clustering around their operational
runs, so not offering much help at this time. The best chance
for rain remains during the day Wednesday, then gradually
lowering Wednesday night into Thursday as the low tracks farther
offshore. Greatest rainfall amounts are across the NYC metro,
NE NJ, and western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, with
around 0.5 to 0.75". Amounts will lower to the northeast, lowest
across interior southern CT at around 0.3 to 0.4". Expect some
fluctuation until we get better agreement in the low track.
While most of the forecast closely followed the NBM, did go with
a weaker easterly flow based on the southward trend of the low.
There is the potential for NE gusts of 20 to 30 mph on the
backside of the low on Thursday.

Conditions likely dry out Thursday night into Friday, but there
is chance for low clouds/drizzle as weak warm advection
develops. There is some uncertainty as to how much dry air
advects into the area as high pressure ridges in from New
England.

Another system with some resemblance to the midweek system will
bring increasing chances of rain Friday night into Saturday,
possibly lingering into Sunday with another frontal wave passing
to the south off the Mid Atlantic coast. High pressure is then
forecast to follow behind early next week.

Temperatures through much of the period are forecast to be at
or just above normal for highs, but lows will generally be
above normal by about 5 degrees due to cloudy nights during the
forecast period. However, highs on Wednesday and Saturday are
forecast be a bit cooler due to the forecast of rain along with
easterly flow. Should the forecast continue to trend drier for
Wednesday, temperatures may need to be bumped up a bit.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Weak high pressure pushes offshore through tonight. Low pressure
slowly approaches from the southwest Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Mainly VFR. There is a chance of showers Tuesday afternoon and
early evening, especially from the NYC metro terminals on NW.

SW winds will continue shifting to the S this afternoon with
speeds 10-15 kt. Any gusts 15-20 kt will be occasional and
mainly located across Long Island. S winds slowly weaken this
evening and may shift to the SSW. Wind speeds by early Tuesday
morning should be around 5 kt. SSW-S winds increase on Tuesday,
becoming 10-15 kt by late morning or early afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A gust 15-20 kt cannot be ruled out through 22Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late Tuesday afternoon: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late. S
winds G15-20kt possible near the coast.

Tuesday night: MVFR or lower in showers, most likely west of the
NYC metros.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in rain. Rain diminishes at
night. NE winds G15-20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. NE winds G20kt.

Friday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower late.

Saturday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers. SE winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Increasing S flow should peak at 20 kt in the NY bight, with
seas up to 4 ft. Therefore a short fused SCA should not be
needed for early this evening. Conditions should remain below
SCA thresholds through Tuesday night.

A strengthening E-NE flow Wednesday into Wednesday night will
likely bring SCA conditions to the ocean waters, with the
potential for 25-30kt gusts and seas of 5 to 10 ft. Highest
winds and seas will be on Thursday, with gradually improving
conditions Thursday night into Friday as high pressure builds
in from the NE.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DW
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/DW
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW