331
FXUS61 KOKX 051754
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
154 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the New England coast weakens locally as it
shifts farther offshore today ahead of an approaching cold front
from the west. The front eventually tracks through the region late
Monday, stalling to our south. High pressure then briefly returns
before the stalled boundary lifts back north as a warm front
Tuesday night. A series of low pressure centers then impact the
weather from Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Made minor adjustments to the probabilities through this
afternoon to better reflect the current conditions. Otherwise,
the forecast is on track.

Stubborn amplified ridging aloft over the Eastern US begins to
break down today as a shortwave swings east through the Great
Lakes and into southeast Canada. A weak area of low pressure
associated with a shortwave running into and over the ridge
passes well to the northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. This
will help push a frontal boundary toward the region, though
will take plenty of time getting here. Ahead of it, surface high
pressure centered near the Canadian Maritimes will maintain
onshore flow as it begins to shift farther out into the western
Atlantic.

More organized shower activity moves through the region this
afternoon as the shortwave axis translates east over the shunted
ridge. Timing for this rain looks to begin for western areas by
midday, spreading slowly eastward into CT and Long Island by
mid afternoon, then continuing intermittently into the evening
before tapering from west to east overnight. Rates will be
light, as will QPF.

Look for areas of fog development tonight in the weak onshore flow
and saturated low levels from the residual moisture. May be locally
dense in spots, and will need to monitor this evening should any
potential headlines be needed into the AM commute.

With the rain, clouds, and return flow temperatures run 10 to 15
degrees below normal today, with afternoon highs in the 50s. These
temperatures likely remain steady overnight, or even rise a few
degrees toward Monday AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lingering showers should largely come to an end for eastern
areas in the morning hours on Monday, with fog likely hanging
around elsewhere before burning off by mid to late morning.
Temperatures jump 20 degrees for some compared to Sunday as SW
flow helps to advect in some milder air, rebounding into the 70s
across the interior and areas away from maritime influence.

Can`t rule out a few pop up showers in the afternoon ahead of the
trailing cold front, but coverage appears limited on CAMs at this
point with decreased moisture. The front finally moves through
Monday night and stalls over the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. The
boundary eventually lifts back north as a warm front, but before
this, ridging returns, along with weak surface high pressure.
This should set up the driest day of the week so far on Tuesday,
with drier air working in. Another mild afternoon with downsloping
helping the interior and areas away from the coast to warm into
the mid to upper 70s. Night will remain mild, generally in the
50s, with lower 60s in the urban metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models over the past 24 hours have trended farther south and
slightly stronger regarding an area of low pressure tracking through
the Great Lakes Region and heading towards us Tuesday night into
Wednesday. There is therefore more confidence that an associated
warm front advances through a good portion of the forecast area
during Wednesday before a trailing cold front sinks south through
here Wednesday night. Shower chances increase Tuesday night with the
best chances occurring through the day Wednesday and generally higher
across the northern zones, which will be closer to the low center.
More instability is now anticipated - being in the warm sector.
Thunderstorms will therefore be possible during Wednesday, and given
potential shear profiles, steepening mid-level lapse rates with a
bit of a cold pool aloft, and CAPE aloft, will need to monitor
trends for the potential of strong wind gusts and small hail. NBM
was used for high temps, which are now expected to reach the lower
80s for NE NJ and parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and city. Mainly
70s for most of the rest of the forecast area.

The cold front stalls not too far to our south Wednesday night and
remains to our south while another wave of low pressure from the
Great Lakes Region approaches. Looks like an occlusion may occur as
a weak secondary low forms along the stalled boundary to our south,
resulting in a broad area of low pressure shifting through during
late Thursday night into Friday. Potential remains for yet another
wave of low pressure to pass nearby the area Friday night into
Saturday. There will be at least some chance of showers for each
period from Wednesday night through Saturday night. The highest
chances appear to be Thursday afternoon into night, but might linger
into Friday morning as well. NBM looked good for temperatures
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A frontal system slowly approaches from the west.

Cigs lowering to IFR this afternoon/evening, likely remaining
IFR through Monday morning then slowly improving to MVFR/VFR
after mid day on Monday. Showers become more likely this
afternoon, then remaining likely well into tonight, then
tapering off overnight.

ESE-SE winds around 10kt or less through this evening with some
occasional gusts up to 20 kt through this afternoon, shifting
more southerly late tonight and remaining southerly through
Monday.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of IFR onset may delayed by an hour or two. Chance that MVFR
cigs develop for a few hours this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Sunday night: IFR with showers ending.

Monday: IFR to MVFR in the morning, then MVFR, becoming VFR in
the afternoon. A slight chance of showers, an isolated
thunderstorm possible.

Tuesday: VFR, becoming MVFR to IFR late at night.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with a chance of showers. Thunderstorms
possible mainly in the afternoon.

Thursday through Friday: Mainly MVFR. Showers likely, mainly in
the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas at this time.

Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions
through Thursday, but ocean seas may rise to 5 ft Thursday
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through this week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels fell short of Stevens Institute NYHOPS guidance last
night. Given its forecast for tonight`s high tide, expecting at most
isolated spots over Southern Fairfield County to touch minor
flooding thresholds, but it`s more likely that levels will fall just
short of benchmarks. Will therefore hold off on issuing a statement
for this area for the time being. Statements will be more likely
here for Monday night, as well as statements possibly needed for the
south shore back bays of Nassau County.

The potential of a more widespread minor flooding event that would
necessitate advisories will probably hold off until Tuesday and
Wednesday nights for these same areas as well as southern Queens.
Statements for these 2 high tide cycles may be needed for other
parts along western LI Sound as well as lower NY Harbor and
Brooklyn.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$