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000
FXUS62 KMLB 261347
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
947 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Quiet on the KMLB WSR-88D radar this morning. Satellite and local
observations show there are a few low to mid level clouds streaming
across the area. The 10Z XMR sounding shows the mid layer is
beginning to moisten, with the upper layer remaining dry. Forecast
soundings show PW values will increase to around 1.2" into this
afternoon as low level moisture increases. Mostly sunny skies are
forecast for today as surface high pressure remains in place.
Easterly winds will increase into this afternoon, gusting as high as
20-25 mph. Temperatures will be seasonable today with afternoon
highs in the low to mid 80s. While most areas will remain dry today,
some CAM guidance shows isolated light showers/sprinkles developing
across the Volusia and Brevard waters into this afternoon as low
level moisture increases in the onshore flow, with some of this
activity possibly making it to the coast. Thus, have added isolated
very light showers along the coast from Brevard to Volusia for this
afternoon. Forecast remains on track with only change being adding
the sprinkles/light rain showers along the Volusia/Brevard coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 945 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will
become easterly by mid-morning and increase to 10-15 KT with gusts
20-25 KT possible into this afternoon. Winds will then decrease to 5-
10 KT overnight. Dry conditions through the period, although light
showers/sprinkles will be possible along the coast, mainly DAB, into
this afternoon. However confidence is too low to include VCSH
wording at this time.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 945 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Favorable boating conditions through today as high pressure remains
in place, with conditions beginning to deteriorate overnight.
Easterly winds will increase to 10-15 KT into this afternoon, with
occasional gusts to 20-25 KT possible. Winds will continue to
increase into tonight, becoming 15-20 KT overnight. Seas 2-3ft today
will increase  to 4-5ft in the nearshore waters and 5-6ft in the
offshore waters tonight. Small craft will need to exercise caution
across all the waters tonight. Mostly dry conditions through
tonight, however local guidance is indicating isolated light
showers/sprinkles will be possible through today from Cape Canaveral
northward as the low level moisture increases over the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Today...Relative humidity values this afternoon recover some as
moisture increases a bit over the area. Values in the mid 30 to low
40 percent range are expected west of I-95. Easterly winds gradually
increase through the day, gusting around 20 mph at times, especially
at the coast.

Sat-Tue...Onshore winds increase a bit more into the weekend 15
mph/15-20 mph (Sat) with higher gusts (highest along the coast),
decreasing just a bit into early next week as the pgrad relaxes
slightly. Min RHs stay above critical levels on Sat-Mon, but as
temperatures climb into next week, we will see values fall back to
35-40pct over the interior by Tue again. Conditions mainly dry
outside of a sprinkle/brief light shower along the coast due to
the deepening onshore flow (chances less than 15%).

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Today-Tonight...Calm conditions are in place to start the day across
east central Florida. Temperatures range from the low 60s to the low
70s (coast) under a mostly clear sky. RAP analysis and satellite
imagery indicate some mid level cloud development over northern
portions of coastal Volusia county and the adjacent waters, due to
some saturation around 800-850mb. Surface high pressure is
forecast to stay locked in place as mid level ridging builds east
from the Gulf of Mexico today. Easterly winds will pick up this
afternoon, gusting as high as 20-25 mph, with temperatures
reaching seasonable levels in the low to mid 80s. At the beaches,
a high risk of rip currents exists, so entering the water is
discouraged.

Sat-Sun...Mid-upper level ridging will encompass much of the
Eastern Seaboard thru the weekend. Mid-level impulses will
occasionally slide down the peninsula, though we continue to retain
mostly dry conditions with a stable onshore flow and less than
modest moisture. However, will not rule out a few showers across
the local coastal waters and cannot entirely rule out some
spits/sprinkles along the coast due to the deep, persistent,
onshore flow. Surface high pressure will dominate across much of
the eastern CONUS. The pgrad will be tight enough for breezy
conditions each afternoon, especially along the coast. Expect
gusts of 20 to 25 mph to be common, with 30 mph within reach along
the immediate coast (esp Sat). Afternoon highs in the U70s to
around 80F at the coast and L80s into the interior. Overnight lows
mild and well into the 60s each early morning.

Mon-Fri...The upper ridging begins to break down and shift off of
the Atlc Seaboard into the western Atlc. Initial surface high
pressure off of the Carolinas will also continue to weaken thru
mid-week, while gradually shifting southward, then further
seaward by the end of the work-week. The onshore surface flow
stays mostly intact, with winds gradually veering a bit more SE/S,
though the pgrad will slowly weaken during this time. Continue to
keep conditions over land dry. Again, overall (low) coverage
potential at the moment, keeping mention of a sprinkle/brief light
shower along the coast out of the grids/zones. A warming trend
will ensue, with L80s at the immediate coast, perhaps some M80s
here by Thu/Fri, and M-U80s into the interior - perhaps some
readings near 90F or just above into the interior Wed-Fri.
Overnight lows remain consistent and in the 60s areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  66  79  66 /  10  10  10   0
MCO  85  65  82  67 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  81  69  80  67 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  82  67  81  66 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  85  66  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  84  65  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  84  65  82  67 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  81  66  81  65 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Watson/Heil