Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
793
FNUS73 KMQT 081211
FWSMQT
Spot Forecast for Soldiers Lake Pile...USFS Hiawatha NF
National Weather Service Marquette MI
811 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Light rain showers will linger around the burn site this morning
through roughly 10 am-noon due to lingering low pressure. As this
system moves away, expect showers to end with lower relative
humidity this afternoon bottoming out around 60 percent. Skies may
partially clear as well, although it should remain mostly cloudy for
the majority of the day. Though moist low-levels will keep mixing
heights limited during the morning, warming and drying in the
afternoon will increase mixing heights to 3-4kft. Winds will be out
of the north today at 5 to 10 mph. RH recovers to around 90 percent
tonight. It will be drier with more breaks of sunshine tomorrow
(Thursday), with RH falling to around 45 percent and northeast to
north winds at 5 to 10 mph.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog late in the
morning. Rain showers likely late in the
morning. Chance of rain showers late in the
morning, then slight chance of rain showers
early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........51 at ignition...Max 58.
RH..................84 percent at ignition...Min 62 percent.
Dewpoint............45.
33-foot winds.......Winds north at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
North winds 8 to 10 mph.
20-foot winds.......North winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 400-2300 ft
AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (85) at ignition. Max...fair (274.0).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.
Rainfall amount.....0.10 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......0.8 increasing to 5.0.
TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
Sky (%).........97 94 90 86 82
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).60 30 20 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1
Temp............51 51 54 57 56
Dewpoint........47 47 47 46 44
RH..............84 86 75 65 66
33 ft wind......N 10 N 10 N 10 N 8 N 8
20 ft wind......N 8 N 8 N 8 N 6 N 6
Wind gust.......13 13 13 10 10
Mix hgt (ft)....400 1000 1800 2300 2100
Haines index....2 3 2 2 2
VIndx kt-ft/100.9 18 25 27 21
Ceiling (kft)...0.8 1.2 2.9 4.2 5.0
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 40.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Dewpoint............42 decreasing to 38 overnight.
33-foot winds.......North winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the
northeast around 8 mph after 3 am.
20-foot winds.......North winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the
northeast around 6 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......0-1400 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (0.0).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.01 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......5.4 increasing to 6.6 late in the evening, then
increasing to 8.8 overnight increasing to 10
overnight decreasing to 9.4.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........75 69 62 68 65 60 55 44 34 30 29 31
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............54 54 50 47 46 44 44 44 42 42 41 41
Dewpoint........44 43 43 43 42 41 40 40 39 38 37 37
RH..............67 67 77 84 85 87 87 86 89 88 86 84
33 ft wind dir..N N N N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE
33 ft wind spd..8 8 8 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8
20 ft wind dir..N N N N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 ft wind spd..6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
Wind gust.......10 10 10 8 8 8 10 10 10 11 11 11
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
VIndx kt-ft/100.10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ceiling (kft)...5.4 5.9 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.3 8.8 10 12 11 10 9.4
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 58.
RH..................Min 44 percent.
Dewpoint............36.
33-foot winds.......Northeast winds 8 to 10 mph shifting to the
north around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the
north around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (0.0).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......10 increasing to 11 late in the morning.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........36 44 46 45 46 47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............41 43 49 54 56 57
Dewpoint........36 37 37 37 36 35
RH..............85 79 63 51 46 44
33 ft wind......NE 8 NE 8 NE 9 NE 10 NE 10 N 10
20 ft wind......NE 6 NE 6 NE 7 NE 8 NE 8 N 8
Wind gust.......11 11 11 11 11 12
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2
VIndx kt-ft/100.0 0 0 0 0 0
Ceiling (kft)...10 12 13 12 11
$$
Forecaster...DT/Jablonski
Requested by...Patty Carrick
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413339.1/MQT
.DELDT 05/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL patricia.carrick@usda.gov