Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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710 FXCA20 KWBC 031935 PMDCA TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 335 PM EDT FRI MAY 03 2024 FORECAST BULLETIN 03 MAY 2024 AT 1900 UTC: A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET...ENHANCED CONVECTION IS LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH AXIS TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ON FRIDAY...INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT MAXIMA OF 35-60MM HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...JAMAICA AND THE NORTHEAST LEEWARD ISLANDS WE CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY... A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EXTENDS EAST OF CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 35W. A MOIST PLUME LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. A GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-30MM IS EXPECTED FOR HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHER LEEWARD ISLANDS. A WEAK JET ALOFT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION AND A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY...AS THE COLD FROM PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD...THE WESTERN PORTION BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...UNDER CONTINUED INFLUENCE BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... A MAXIMA OF 20-40MM EXPECTED IN HISPANIOLA. IN EAST CUBA AND PUERTO RICO WE EXPECT A MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED IN EAST CUBA AND LA HISPANIOLA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO..EXTENDING FROM A ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG CONVERGENCE WILL WORK TO INHIBIT SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MAXIMA TO REMAIN IN THE 15-35MM RANGE FOR THE FORECAST CYCLE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE START DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS NORTHWARD...ON FRIDAY...A MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN EXPECTED IN WESTERN COLOMBIA AND MAXIMA RANGE OF 20-45MM RANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE AMAZON BASIN. ON SATURDAY.. A MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHWEST OF COLOMBIA...SOUTH VENEZUELA AND NORTH ECUADOR.ON MONDAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ENHANCE THE DIFFLUENCE PATTERN AT UPPER LEVELS TO THE NORTHWEST OF SOUTH AMERICA. A MAXIMA OF 30-50MM IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN COLUMBIA. NORTHERN COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN BRASIL MAXIMA OF 20-40 RANGE IS EXPECTED. IN NORTHERN EAST SOUTH AMERICA...EASTERLY WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ/NET AS THEY PROPAGATE TO THE WEST... WILL FAVOR CONVECTION IN FRENCH GUIANA AND AMAPA...WITH A MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON MONDAY. AREAS ALONG THE COAST CAN EXPECT A RANGE 25-50MM. LEDESMA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)/ CLARKE (CAYMAN ISLANDS) $$