Text Products for AFD Issued by OUN

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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FXUS64 KOUN 161720
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

 - Near critical to critical fire weather expected across northern
   and western Oklahoma on today.

 - Chances for thunderstorms and much colder air return Thursday /
   Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A Pacific front will continue to move through central Oklahoma
around sunrise. There is a low chance that storms will be ongoing
as this front moves eastward, given that the main large scale
ascent will be north of the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Gusty westerly
winds are expected behind the boundary throughout most of
Tuesday. Dry air will contribute to RH values in the low to mid
teens, especially out in western Oklahoma. In addition, the fuels
across portions of western and northwestern Oklahoma are in the
70-89th percentile. A Red Flag Warning has already been issued for
far northwestern Oklahoma beginning mid morning and continuing
until after sunset.

Winds will weaken overnight and shift towards the north. Clear
skies will help overnight lows get into the upper 40s out west,
and in the low to mid 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Our attention turns to Thursday afternoon where there is a low
risk for severe storms as a stronger cold front moves through the
area. Medium range models are in good agreement with the timing
and evolution of the front. Rich moisture will overspread southern
Oklahoma ahead of the front, which will help aid in storm
development. There will be sufficient instability for large hail
and there could be some damaging winds, especially given the
inverted V soundings from the GFS.

Much colder air will follow this frontal boundary and will
continue through the weekend. Highs are expected to get into the
upper 50s to low 60s, and lows will be in the 40s. A shortwave is
expected to move through by Saturday, bringing rain chances to the
southern half of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Gusty westerly to southwesterly winds will continue through the
afternoon before coming down and becoming more variable in
direction this evening. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  85  63  83 /   0   0   0  20
Hobart OK         51  84  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  53  87  64  89 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           49  84  53  72 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     51  83  60  79 /   0   0  10  30
Durant OK         63  86  67  87 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-
     010.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...14
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
