Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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111 FXUS64 KOUN 081921 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 221 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The cold front continues its progress eastward early this afternoon, with a moist and very unstable airmass in place ahead of the boundary. Expect convective initiation to occur in the next one to two hours as the boundary reaches our far southeastern counties. With upwards of 4000+ MLCAPE and 40-50 knots of bulk shear, any storm that develops will have the potential to quickly become severe. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats with these storms, with a very low tornado risk given veering surface winds ahead of the boundary. Storms are expected to quickly exit our area to the east by 7-8 pm, with dry conditions then expected for the entire area overnight. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Dry and mild conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday for the majority of the area as the front stalls to our south. The boundary will remain in close enough proximity to our southern counties to retain a low chance (20-30%) for storm development tomorrow afternoon, with enough instability and shear lingering for a marginal risk of mainly large hail with this activity. Better chances for more widespread showers and storms will arrive Saturday night through Monday as a closed upper low pushes slowly eastward across our area. Ahead of this feature, modest moisture return is expected which could lead to enough instability across our southern counties for an outside shot at some strong to severe thunderstorms, but the overall risk appears fairly low for much of the rest of our area. Showers and storms could potentially linger into the day on Tuesday, depending on the speed of the upper low. Models then show another potential system impacting the area Wednesday into Thursday, which could bring another shot of showers and thunderstorms. Ware && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A cold front will continue to advance to the southeast through the remaining TAF sites (KOUN, KLAW, KDUA) this afternoon. Winds will veer to the southwest and then northwest as the cold front moves through. There is a chance that thunderstorms may develop in vicinity of KDUA as the cold front moves through (VCTS was included to account for this possibility). Winds will gradually become northeasterly this evening into tomorrow. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 55 79 54 76 / 0 10 0 0 Hobart OK 55 80 53 78 / 0 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 59 80 56 77 / 0 10 0 0 Gage OK 48 79 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 51 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 61 82 58 78 / 10 30 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...10